MatchWiz

Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: hits at 65.8/100.

Today's top board
65.8
Hits · vs STL
Our calls on him · hits
67%
1+ hit in 14/21 top-20 calls
Games graded
118
this season, box-score final
Brandon Marsh
LFBats LThrows RPhiladelphia Phillies
Hits65.8/100proj 1.1#49H+R+RBI54/100proj 1.8#83Walks53.7/100proj 0.4#70Singles52.4/100proj 0.7#33Runs50.9/100proj 0.5#124Total Bases45.1/100proj 1.5#129Fantasy Points42.8/100proj 6.8#91RBIs37.7/100proj 0.5#125Doubles34.2/100proj 0.2#101Home Runs29.9/100proj 0.2#81Stolen Bases13.6/100proj 0.1#72Triples6.4/100proj 0#216

Today's matchup

Today it's St. Louis Cardinals for Brandon, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — hits (65.8/100, #49), h+r+rbi (54/100, #83), walks (53.7/100, #70), singles (52.4/100, #33). We've got him at 1.1 on the hits board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Brandon is 9-for-29 (.310) over his last 10 games, in line with his .277 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Brandon has 17 home runs and 37 extra-base hits in 433 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Brandon hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Brandon has recorded at least one hit in 79 of 117 games he's batted in — 68% — with 30 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Brandon is hitting .295 at home (69-for-234) and .256 on the road (51-for-199) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against St. Louis Cardinals

Brandon is 5-for-17 (.294) against St. Louis Cardinals in our log, over 6 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 17 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Brandon's biggest night was Thursday, August 13, 2026 at MIN — 2-for-2 with 1 homer, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Brandon have graded

We've ranked Brandon a top-20 hitter matchup 21 times this season. He got a hit in 14 of them — 67%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Brandon was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 65.8/100 while triples came in at 6.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Brandon's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23vs STL31000
Saturday, August 22vs STL10000
Friday, August 21vs STL32021
Wednesday, August 19vs MIA42000
Tuesday, August 18vs MIA41000
Monday, August 17vs MIA30000
Sunday, August 16@ MIN30000
Thursday, August 13@ MIN22122
Wednesday, August 12@ STL20000
Tuesday, August 11@ STL41000
Monday, August 10@ STL41020
Sunday, August 9vs TOR51000

Brandon Marsh — FAQ

Who is Brandon Marsh facing today?

Brandon Marsh is hosting St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 65.8/100 on our hits board, ranked #49.

What is Brandon Marsh's projection today?

We project Brandon for 1.1 on the hits board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Brandon Marsh graded?

In the 21 games where our model ranked Brandon a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 14 times — 67%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Brandon Marsh been hitting lately?

Brandon is 9-for-29 (.310) over his last 10 games, against .277 on the season across 433 at-bats in our log, with 17 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Brandon Marsh appear on?

Brandon was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — hits, h+r+rbi, walks, singles, runs. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Brandon Marsh's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).