MatchWiz

Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: walks at 73.6/100.

Today's top board
73.6
Walks · @ AZ
Our calls on him · hits
67%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
96
this season, box-score final
Tyler Stephenson
CBats RThrows RCincinnati Reds
Walks73.6/100proj 0.4#6Doubles55.6/100proj 0.2#24Total Bases43.5/100proj 1.5#53Runs42.4/100proj 0.5#58Hits31/100proj 0.9#70H+R+RBI30.6/100proj 1.6#65Fantasy Points28.5/100proj 6.1#68RBIs27.7/100proj 0.4#64Singles26.9/100proj 0.5#75Triples9.6/100proj 0#48Home Runs5.7/100proj 0.1#82Stolen Bases1.3/100proj 0#86

Today's matchup

Today it's Arizona Diamondbacks for Tyler, away. He shows up on 12 boards — walks (73.6/100, #6), doubles (55.6/100, #24), total bases (43.5/100, #53), runs (42.4/100, #58). We've got him at 0.4 on the walks board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Tyler is 6-for-31 (.194) over his last 10 games, in line with his .243 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Tyler has 12 home runs and 28 extra-base hits in 304 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Tyler hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Tyler has recorded at least one hit in 54 of 94 games he's batted in — 57% — with 18 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Tyler is hitting .206 at home (32-for-155) and .282 on the road (42-for-149) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

His best game in the log

Tyler's biggest night was Thursday, August 13, 2026 at CWS — 2-for-3 with 1 homer, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Tyler a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 3 times so far. He's appeared in 96 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Tyler was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 73.6/100 while stolen bases came in at 1.3/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Tyler's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Tyler specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22@ AZ42003
Thursday, August 20vs STL40001
Wednesday, August 19vs STL40000
Tuesday, August 18vs STL30000
Monday, August 17@ 10010
Monday, August 17vs STL30000
Sunday, August 16vs MIA11111
Saturday, August 15vs MIA40000
Friday, August 14vs MIA41010
Thursday, August 13@ CWS32123
Wednesday, August 12@ CWS10000
Tuesday, August 11@ CWS41002

Tyler Stephenson — FAQ

Who is Tyler Stephenson facing today?

Tyler Stephenson is facing Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 73.6/100 on our walks board, ranked #6.

What is Tyler Stephenson's projection today?

We project Tyler for 0.4 on the walks board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has Tyler Stephenson been hitting lately?

Tyler is 6-for-31 (.194) over his last 10 games, against .243 on the season across 304 at-bats in our log, with 12 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Tyler Stephenson appear on?

Tyler was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — walks, doubles, total bases, runs, hits. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Tyler Stephenson's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).