Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, April 11, 2026)?

Jack Leiter (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against LAD. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, April 11, 2026: Jack Leiter (~5.6 K), Kodai Senga (~6.2 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.9 K), Lance McCullers Jr. (~6.0 K), Edward Cabrera (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, April 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 1/3 (33%) on our strikeout over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 3

1/333%

season 51%

Top 5

2/540%

season 46%

Full slate

16/3053%

season 51%

Top call Kodai Senga came through. Jack Leiter didn't.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 68% — a +21% return.

Final · 3–4

AZaway

PHIhomeTop matchup20 Final · 1–6

MIAaway

DEThomeTop matchup43 Final · 4–3

PITaway

CHChomeTop matchup71 Final · 7–4

MINaway

TORhomeTop matchup57 Final · 11–6

ATHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup97 Final · 0–2

CWSaway

KChomeTop matchup54 Final · 3–7

LAAaway

CINhomeTop matchup27 Final · 4–5

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup36 Final · 3–1

WSHaway

MILhomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–6

SFaway

BALhomeTop matchup58 Final · 7–1

BOSaway

STLhomeTop matchup30 Final · 6–0

CLEaway

ATLhomeTop matchup59 Final · 5–9

COLaway

SDhomeTop matchup14 Final · 3–6

TEXaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–8

HOUaway

SEAhomeTop matchup83

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB29.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.9%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)18.9%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.9%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)17.5%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)25.4%2.8

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)24.9%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)22.5%2.0

8. Alex Freeland (L)24.7%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-103-124

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jack Leiter's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)23.2%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)27.5%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)24.7%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.1%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)17.8%3.0

6. Jeff McNeil (L)22.1%2.1

7. Darell Hernaiz (R)21.8%2.0

8. Carlos Cortes (L)18.3%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)30.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+104-135

BRBetRivers+107-143

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings-103-123

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kodai Senga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)24.7%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.6%3.0

3. Brady House (R)23.4%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)21.1%3.0

5. Joey Wiemer (R)25.2%2.5

6. CJ Abrams (L)23.5%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)19.4%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.1%2.0

9. Drew Millas (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-150+117

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.2%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)26.3%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.4%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.1%2.6

6. Luke Raley (L)29.2%2.0

7. Cole Young (L)24.3%2.0

8. Brendan Donovan (L)18.6%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+102-130

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 6.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Lance McCullers Jr.'s full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.0%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (L)22.9%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.5%3.0

5. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.6%2.5

6. Nick Yorke (R)19.5%2.0

7. Nick Gonzales (R)18.4%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)20.9%2.0

9. Joey Bart (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-145

BOLBetOnline+112-145

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+112-148

MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 5.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Edward Cabrera's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.0%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.6%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)23.8%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)24.1%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)26.2%2.7

6. Danny Jansen (R)25.0%2.0

7. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.1%2.0

8. Sam Haggerty (L)21.7%2.0

9. Josh Jung (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-186+138

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-157+123

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-154+116

MBMyBookie-154+111

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.0%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)19.8%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)17.1%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.3%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)19.3%2.4

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)21.3%2.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.6%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)18.1%2.0

9. Luke Williams (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-104-129

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-121-106

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)22.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.0%3.0

4. Samuel Basallo (L)25.3%3.0

5. Dylan Beavers (L)23.5%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)23.1%2.9

7. Colton Cowser (L)25.0%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)26.5%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-177+132

BOVBovada-160+120

FDFanDuel-154+116

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.6%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)18.1%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)22.2%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)18.8%2.6

5. Josh Bell (R)24.6%2.0

6. Victor Caratini (R)20.6%2.0

7. James Outman (L)25.1%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (R)21.5%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers-114-117

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-118-108

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-110-120

MBMyBookie-113-123

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (R)19.3%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)23.3%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)25.8%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)22.4%2.7

6. Brandon Lockridge (R)24.3%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)19.7%2.0

8. Garrett Mitchell (L)25.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-101-128

BRBetRivers-106-125

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+109-139

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-105-131

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)19.3%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)23.8%3.0

3. Andrew Benintendi (L)27.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.3%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)21.1%3.0

6. Dustin Harris (L)21.1%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)26.1%2.0

8. Tanner Murray (R)22.0%2.0

9. Reese McGuire (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-115-115

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-125-102

FDFanDuel-110-120

MBMyBookie-107-128

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Myles Straw (R)19.4%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)21.9%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.8%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)23.7%3.0

5. Davis Schneider (R)24.9%2.3

6. Nathan Lukes (L)19.7%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)14.0%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)16.8%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+120-156

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+114-146

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+114-158

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)22.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)17.4%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.6%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)16.6%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)21.6%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)25.2%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)24.1%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)25.1%2.0

9. Heriberto Hernández (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+109-141

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+109-140

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+104-144

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Walker (R)18.7%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.9%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.7%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)18.7%3.0

5. Carlos Correa (R)16.9%2.5

6. Joey Loperfido (L)26.3%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)22.3%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)17.1%2.0

9. Taylor Trammell (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-125-103

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-119-107

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-104-128

MBMyBookie-128-107

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB18.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.1%3.0

2. Wenceel Pérez (L)21.0%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.6%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)23.2%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)23.3%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)30.4%2.1

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.3%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.6%2.0

9. Matt Vierling (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-195+143

DKDraftKings-153+120

MBMyBookie-150+108

We project 5.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)14.1%3.0

2. Matt Shaw (R)20.5%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)15.4%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.9%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.7%3.0

6. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)20.9%2.0

7. Miguel Amaya (R)20.1%2.0

8. Michael Conforto (L)25.2%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-147+113

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-146+115

FDFanDuel-158+118

MBMyBookie-153+111

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.7%3.0

2. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.4%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.3%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)17.1%3.0

5. Ben Williamson (R)20.6%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.1%2.5

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.3%2.0

8. Chandler Simpson (L)17.1%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+106-136

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Max Fried's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.2% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)26.2%3.0

2. Caleb Durbin (R)20.6%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)25.1%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.9%3.0

6. Trevor Story (R)28.4%2.1

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)27.4%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)22.7%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+117-152

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+130-167

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+111-154

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)21.2%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)24.4%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.5%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0

5. Randal Grichuk (R)22.6%2.8

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.1%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)23.8%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)25.0%2.0

9. Amed Rosario (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-124-108

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-118-108

FDFanDuel-130-102

MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.0%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.4%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)18.3%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)28.5%2.7

6. Jonathan India (R)22.4%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.8%2.0

8. Lane Thomas (R)25.2%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+128-175

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+127-162

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Erick Fedde's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.3%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)21.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)24.9%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)20.5%3.0

6. Vaughn Grissom (R)24.3%2.0

7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.8%2.0

8. Yoán Moncada (R)28.9%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-143+108

DKDraftKings-164+128

FANFanatics-160+120

MBMyBookie-167+120

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Williamson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.2%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)24.6%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.5%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.2%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)24.9%2.2

6. Dane Myers (R)20.0%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)24.7%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)21.4%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-137+106

BRBetRivers-120-112

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-134+105

FDFanDuel-118-112

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

George Klassen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.9%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.2%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.8%2.9

6. Adolis García (R)24.2%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.5%2.0

8. Alec Bohm (R)20.3%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-113-118

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-102-135

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.9%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)24.6%3.0

4. Nolan Gorman (L)25.9%3.0

5. Ramón Urías (R)23.1%2.2

6. José Fermín (R)21.0%2.0

7. Alec Burleson (L)17.8%2.0

8. Nathan Church (L)23.0%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-115-112

BRBetRivers-129-104

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-155+121

FDFanDuel-130-102

MBMyBookie-119-116

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)22.9%3.0

2. Christian Koss (R)20.6%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)21.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.5%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)24.9%2.4

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.3%2.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)27.2%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)21.1%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-124-107

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-127+100

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-125-106

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Chris Bassitt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.7%3.0

2. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.1%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)20.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)25.5%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.2%2.3

6. Willi Castro (L)27.6%2.0

7. Brett Sullivan (L)20.9%2.0

8. TJ Rumfield (L)22.2%2.0

9. Tyler Freeman (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+117-157

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.5% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)20.0%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.8%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)28.4%3.0

5. Jose Fernandez (R)23.9%3.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.4%2.6

7. Tim Tawa (R)20.9%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)22.8%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-102-125

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Taijuan Walker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (R)18.4%3.0

2. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.4%3.0

3. Jorge Polanco (R)21.0%3.0

4. Bo Bichette (R)21.6%3.0

5. Mark Vientos (R)22.2%2.7

6. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.0%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)27.3%2.0

8. Marcus Semien (R)18.7%2.0

9. Brett Baty (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-150

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+138-186

DKDraftKings+122-156

MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)24.8%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.8%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)18.5%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.0%2.9

5. Bryce Johnson (L)26.1%2.0

6. Gavin Sheets (L)23.1%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)21.4%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)23.3%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers+100-132

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+101-129

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-107-128

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Feltner's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)19.1%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)19.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)15.6%3.0

4. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.7%2.8

5. Chase DeLauter (L)22.7%2.0

6. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.3%2.0

7. Juan Brito (R)20.4%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+117-152

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+119-151

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+111-154

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Jack Leiter (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, April 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K, with Kodai Senga (NYM) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against LAD. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and LAD has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Kodai Senga (NYM) (97) — about 6.2 K vs ATH: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) (91) — about 5.9 K vs WSH: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) (83) — about 6.0 K vs SEA: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Edward Cabrera (CHC) (71) — about 5.2 K vs PIT: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (64) — about 5.5 K vs TEX: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BOS is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Kyle Leahy is the arm to exploit it (30).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Logan Webb is the arm to exploit it (58).
SEA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Lance McCullers Jr. is the arm to exploit it (83).
CWS is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael Wacha is the arm to exploit it (54).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 3.7 strikeouts. Top play Jack Leiter punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

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Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, April 11, 2026)?: Jack Leiter (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against LAD. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, April 11, 2026: Jack Leiter (~5.6 K), Kodai Senga (~6.2 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.9 K), Lance McCullers Jr. (~6.0 K), Edward Cabrera (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, April 11, 2026?: Jack Leiter punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 68% at a +21% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays