Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)?

Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIN. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 21, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~6.3 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Kris Bubic (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, April 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 65% — a +18% return.

Final · 5–8

HOUaway

CLEhomeTop matchup61 Final · 12–6

CINaway

TBhomeTop matchup53 Final · 5–3

STLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup44 Final · 12–4

MILaway

DEThomeTop matchup50 Final · 4–11

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup51 Final · 4–0

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup56 Final · 5–3

MINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

BALaway

KChomeTop matchup69 Final · 4–7

PHIaway

CHChomeTop matchup90 Final · 1–5

PITaway

TEXhomeTop matchup48 Final · 1–0

SDaway

COLhomeTop matchup56 Final · 4–2

TORaway

LAAhomeTop matchup29 Final · 5–2

ATHaway

SEAhomeTop matchup37 Final · 11–5

CWSaway

AZhomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–3

LADaway

SFhomeTop matchup56

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB28.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.9%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)23.2%3.0

3. James Outman (L)29.0%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.9%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)26.9%2.8

6. Luke Keaschall (R)18.2%2.0

7. Matt Wallner (L)30.1%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)22.9%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+105-135

BRBetRivers+104-137

DKDraftKings-103-124

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie+100-138

We project 6.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.0% K / BF

vs LHB30.6%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.0%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%3.0

4. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)21.0%2.2

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.8%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)17.7%2.0

8. Brandon Marsh (L)27.1%2.0

9. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+101-128

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+112-148

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)18.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)21.1%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)25.1%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)20.5%3.0

5. Carson Kelly (R)19.6%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)19.2%2.5

7. Dansby Swanson (R)24.5%2.0

8. Scott Kingery (R)24.2%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+111-145

BRBetRivers+123-165

DKDraftKings+111-141

MBMyBookie+106-147

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.4% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)19.1%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)20.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.1%3.0

5. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.6%2.8

6. Weston Wilson (R)26.0%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (R)25.4%2.0

8. Samuel Basallo (L)21.5%2.0

9. Colton Cowser (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+114-152

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+106-140

MBMyBookie+109-152

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)19.0%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.8%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)21.8%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.2%3.0

5. Isaac Paredes (R)20.1%3.0

6. Cam Smith (R)22.8%2.1

7. Yainer Diaz (R)19.4%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)28.4%2.0

9. Daniel Johnson (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+130-169

BRBetRivers+135-182

BOVBovada+120-160

FDFanDuel+120-160

MBMyBookie+123-171

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.4%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)20.1%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.7%3.0

4. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.9%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)24.4%2.8

6. Will Smith (R)18.0%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)24.6%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)20.6%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+148-200

DKDraftKings+126-161

MBMyBookie+109-152

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)24.9%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.7%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)19.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.0%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.4%3.0

6. Jerar Encarnacion (R)21.6%2.3

7. Heliot Ramos (R)25.0%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.8%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-108-124

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-104-122

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.2%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.0%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.0%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)19.9%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.2%2.8

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.2%2.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)21.6%2.0

8. Jordan Beck (R)23.7%2.0

9. Willi Castro (L)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+117-152

BRBetRivers+114-150

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+118-151

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+118-158

MBMyBookie+111-154

We project 5.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ryan McMahon (L)24.6%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)25.7%3.0

3. Ben Rice (L)24.2%3.0

4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)24.2%3.0

5. Cody Bellinger (L)18.1%2.3

6. Trent Grisham (L)22.9%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.7%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)25.6%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-114-114

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-117-109

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-117-117

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)23.2%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)20.8%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)26.2%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.7%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.6%2.4

6. Spencer Steer (R)21.9%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.0%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)22.6%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+125-165

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+112-156

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.9%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.3%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)27.8%3.0

6. Michael Massey (L)21.3%2.4

7. Jac Caglianone (L)23.4%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)27.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-121-110

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-116-110

FDFanDuel-110-120

MBMyBookie-115-120

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.8%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.7%3.0

3. Jacob Young (R)20.4%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)15.2%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.9%2.3

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.8%2.0

7. Brady House (R)26.2%2.0

8. Curtis Mead (R)20.9%2.0

9. Drew Millas (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+117-149

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+110-146

MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)16.0%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)23.0%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)22.9%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.5%2.5

6. Joey Ortiz (R)21.5%2.0

7. Luis Matos (R)20.2%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)20.1%2.0

9. Greg Jones (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+135-180

DKDraftKings+119-153

FANFanatics+115-150

MBMyBookie+112-156

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.5%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)22.5%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.7%3.0

4. Ben Williamson (R)20.1%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)18.5%2.7

6. Ryan Vilade (R)22.5%2.0

7. Richie Palacios (L)18.5%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)25.2%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-111-116

BRBetRivers-110-121

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-113-113

FDFanDuel-104-128

MBMyBookie-115-120

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)26.8%3.0

2. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.0%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)23.5%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)20.8%2.8

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.5%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)21.6%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)23.8%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-111-115

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)17.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.2%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)26.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.0%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)24.7%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)20.0%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+109-141

BRBetRivers+112-148

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+112-143

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie+104-144

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.7%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)25.8%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.3%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.1%3.0

5. Everson Pereira (R)23.0%3.0

6. Sam Antonacci (L)17.9%2.1

7. Chase Meidroth (R)19.0%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)25.6%2.0

9. Reese McGuire (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-157+123

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.9%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.5%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.7%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.1%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)23.9%2.6

6. Josh Jung (R)20.2%2.0

7. Evan Carter (L)19.5%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)24.1%2.0

9. Josh Smith (L)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+110-140

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.8%3.0

2. Wenceel Pérez (R)19.7%3.0

3. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.9%3.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)19.8%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)19.9%2.2

6. Riley Greene (L)24.5%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.3%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)25.4%2.0

9. Colt Keith (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-111-115

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-120-115

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luke Raley (L)23.5%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.4%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.3%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)22.5%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.9%2.8

6. J.P. Crawford (L)22.0%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)22.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)19.7%2.0

9. Dominic Canzone (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-106-122

BRBetRivers-104-129

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-105-122

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-110-125

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)23.1%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)25.5%3.0

3. Masataka Yoshida (L)17.2%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.5%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)27.1%2.5

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.0%2.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)25.4%2.0

8. Caleb Durbin (R)16.3%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+107-143

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+120-153

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+108-144

MBMyBookie+109-152

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.2%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)22.7%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)16.5%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)15.0%2.7

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)22.6%2.0

7. Javier Sanoja (R)17.1%2.0

8. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.8%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+127-163

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.5%3.0

3. Carlos Cortes (L)14.4%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.4%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)15.2%2.7

6. Jeff McNeil (L)17.1%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)30.2%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)22.1%2.0

9. Zack Gelof (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-122-109

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-114-111

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-120-115

We project 4.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)19.2%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)16.7%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.9%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)18.8%2.6

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)20.4%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)22.4%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)19.9%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+106-141

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+120-154

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)20.2%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.8%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.1%3.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.1%2.6

6. Jose Fernandez (R)23.3%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.6%2.0

9. Alek Thomas (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-159+122

BRBetRivers-167+125

DKDraftKings-161+126

MBMyBookie-160+116

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB17.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)23.8%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.0%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)19.0%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)23.2%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (R)27.9%2.5

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.6%2.0

7. Adam Frazier (L)22.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.7%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-130

BOLBetOnline-111-116

BRBetRivers-114-117

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-111-114

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-115-120

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.3 BF

Expected batters faced18.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.3%2.3

2. Chase DeLauter (L)16.2%2.0

3. José Ramírez (L)16.7%2.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)30.6%2.0

5. George Valera (L)20.0%2.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.6%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)23.0%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.1%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+118-150

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+108-144

MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Myles Straw (R)17.3%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)13.9%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.4%3.0

4. Davis Schneider (R)26.2%3.0

5. Eloy Jiménez (R)22.4%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.2%2.6

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.4%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.2%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+101-129

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Marcus Semien (R)19.0%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)21.3%3.0

3. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.7%3.0

4. Bo Bichette (R)21.8%3.0

5. Luis Torrens (R)19.7%3.0

6. Francisco Alvarez (R)18.7%2.0

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.8%2.0

8. Mark Vientos (R)25.0%2.0

9. Carson Benge (L)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BOLBetOnline+130-169

BRBetRivers+143-195

DKDraftKings+121-154

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+123-171

We project 3.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB18.4%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)24.6%2.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.0%2.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)21.1%2.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.3%2.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.5%1.7

6. Ty France (R)17.4%1.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)17.6%1.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.4%1.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, April 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Shota Imanaga (CHC) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIN. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIN has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Shota Imanaga (CHC) (90) — about 6.3 K vs PHI: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (78) — about 6.0 K vs CHC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kris Bubic (KC) (69) — about 6.0 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (61) — about 5.4 K vs HOU: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (56) — about 5.3 K vs LAD: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

MIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nolan McLean is the arm to exploit it (100).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Randy Vásquez is the arm to exploit it (56).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Connelly Early is the arm to exploit it (56).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Kris Bubic is the arm to exploit it (69).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.8 strikeouts. Top play Nolan McLean punched out 10. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)?: Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIN. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 21, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~6.3 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Kris Bubic (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, April 21, 2026?: Nolan McLean punched out 10.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.