Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, May 5, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against HOU. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, May 5, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~6.5 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.7 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.0 K), Gavin Williams (~5.9 K), Logan Webb (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, May 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 62% — a +11% return.

Final · 10–3

BOSaway

DEThomeTop matchup46 Final · 3–4

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup49 Final · 1–9

ATHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup72 Final · 9–7

BALaway

MIAhomeTop matchup44 Final · 11–3

MINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup57 Final · 4–7

TEXaway

NYYhomeTop matchup83 Final · 2–3

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup55 Final · 3–5

CLEaway

KChomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–2

LADaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup44 Final · 0–9

PITaway

AZhomeTop matchup35 Final · 3–2

ATLaway

SEAhomeTop matchup50 Final · 10–5

SDaway

SFhomeTop matchup65

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB28.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)19.2%3.0

2. Brice Matthews (R)27.0%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.6%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.2%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)27.6%3.0

6. Zach Cole (L)24.1%2.3

7. Christian Vázquez (R)19.3%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)24.1%2.0

9. Braden Shewmake (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-175+134

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-160+120

FDFanDuel-152+114

MBMyBookie-176+126

We project 6.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)17.9%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)24.2%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)18.3%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.2%2.9

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.0%2.0

6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.8%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)21.2%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)25.8%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+115-155

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+116-149

FDFanDuel+112-148

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)15.9%3.0

2. Brent Rooker (R)25.5%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)29.3%3.0

4. Colby Thomas (R)25.1%3.0

5. Zack Gelof (R)23.8%3.0

6. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.5%3.0

7. Austin Wynns (R)20.4%2.3

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.6%2.0

9. Brett Harris (R)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-149+117

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-140+106

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.0%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.7%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.6%2.7

7. Isaac Collins (L)23.3%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)21.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-128-101

BRBetRivers-129-104

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-129+101

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-128-104

MBMyBookie-131-105

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.8 BF

Expected batters faced24.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)22.2%3.0

2. Manny Machado (R)22.0%3.0

3. Miguel Andujar (R)19.5%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)22.6%3.0

5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.3%3.0

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.3%3.0

7. Bryce Johnson (L)24.4%2.8

8. Luis Campusano (R)23.6%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-106-121

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Evan Carter (L)21.2%3.0

2. Corey Seager (L)19.9%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)19.4%3.0

4. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.5%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)19.8%2.7

6. Jake Burger (R)27.0%2.0

7. Justin Foscue (R)30.7%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)27.5%2.0

9. Andrew McCutchen (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+113-147

DKDraftKings+107-136

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+108-149

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.6%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.8%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.0%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)19.0%2.8

5. Austin Martin (R)20.3%2.0

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.7%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)18.1%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)22.0%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-114-117

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-120-106

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.2%3.0

2. Daylen Lile (L)18.5%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.7%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.1%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)21.2%3.0

6. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.5%2.9

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.2%2.0

8. José Tena (L)27.9%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+112-145

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+108-138

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+106-140

MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.5%3.0

2. Dane Myers (R)21.5%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.1%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.2%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.8%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)22.6%2.2

7. Jose Trevino (R)20.3%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)26.2%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-150+114

DKDraftKings-155+121

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-160+120

MBMyBookie-168+121

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)18.4%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.2%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.2%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)16.9%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)24.6%3.0

6. Dominic Canzone (L)23.1%2.7

7. Cole Young (L)22.2%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)27.3%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-137+106

BRBetRivers-143+107

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-138+108

FDFanDuel-152+114

MBMyBookie-144+104

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Fortes (R)16.4%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.6%3.0

3. Taylor Walls (L)24.5%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)14.8%3.0

5. Jake Fraley (L)22.6%3.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)20.7%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)20.8%2.0

8. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.9%2.0

9. Ryan Vilade (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+117-155

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+119-152

FDFanDuel+118-158

MBMyBookie+112-156

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.4%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.3%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.4%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.3%3.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.2%2.1

7. Bryson Stott (L)21.5%2.0

8. Alec Bohm (R)17.6%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BOLBetOnline-130+101

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-129+101

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-133-103

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)22.6%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)17.5%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.1%3.0

4. Eli White (R)21.1%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.6%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)26.3%3.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)17.7%2.1

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.0%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+105-135

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+115-147

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+100-138

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)21.8%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)22.7%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)18.4%3.0

4. Trevor Story (R)25.1%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.6%3.0

6. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.2%2.8

7. Caleb Durbin (R)18.8%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)21.1%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOLBetOnline+109-141

BRBetRivers-103-132

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-104-122

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie+104-144

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.7%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.2%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.3%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)24.8%2.7

6. Oswald Peraza (R)24.2%2.0

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.2%2.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)22.1%2.0

9. Bryce Teodosio (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+120-159

BOVBovada+130-170

DKDraftKings+121-154

FDFanDuel+128-172

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.0% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.7%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)20.5%3.0

3. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.3%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.0%3.0

5. Adley Rutschman (L)17.8%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.1%3.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)26.3%3.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.3%2.1

9. Blaze Alexander (R)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-102-127

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-103-124

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie-106-130

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.9%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.6%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.1%2.9

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.2%2.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.6%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.6%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)16.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-117-114

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-116-110

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-120-115

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.2%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)18.6%3.0

3. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%3.0

4. Jarred Kelenic (L)22.1%2.3

5. Edgar Quero (R)21.4%2.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.2%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)26.0%2.0

8. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.2%2.0

9. Sam Antonacci (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.1%3.0

2. Ketel Marte (L)20.7%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)28.1%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.6%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.3%2.4

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.6%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)20.1%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.2%2.0

9. Alek Thomas (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+133-180

BOVBovada+130-170

FDFanDuel+130-174

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.5%3.0

2. Casey Schmitt (R)21.6%3.0

3. Rafael Devers (L)26.4%3.0

4. Heliot Ramos (R)24.2%2.3

5. Bryce Eldridge (L)22.4%2.0

6. Matt Chapman (R)24.7%2.0

7. Willy Adames (R)29.1%2.0

8. Christian Koss (R)20.9%2.0

9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-135+105

BRBetRivers-136+102

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-136+106

FDFanDuel-130-102

MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)13.2%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)15.0%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)20.7%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)25.7%3.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)22.4%2.8

6. Connor Norby (R)28.7%2.0

7. Javier Sanoja (R)17.4%2.0

8. Owen Caissie (L)31.0%2.0

9. Graham Pauley (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-105-123

BRBetRivers+104-139

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-103-124

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 4.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Alex Call (R)19.7%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)17.1%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)19.7%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.5%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.3%2.7

6. Max Muncy (L)20.6%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)21.7%2.0

8. Santiago Espinal (R)19.1%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-106-122

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-105-122

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel-104-128

MBMyBookie-110-125

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.8%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)24.9%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.9%3.0

4. Billy Cook (R)23.6%3.0

5. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.0%3.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)25.4%2.4

7. Jake Mangum (R)21.2%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)26.9%2.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+132-177

BOVBovada+135-180

DKDraftKings+118-151

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+132-178

MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)16.8%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)18.6%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)22.9%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.7%3.0

5. Dansby Swanson (R)24.5%2.8

6. Michael Busch (L)22.6%2.0

7. Ryan Rolison (R)22.0%2.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)20.5%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-161+123

BRBetRivers-152+115

DKDraftKings-166+130

FDFanDuel-166+124

MBMyBookie-162+117

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB16.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)13.5%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.8%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.0%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.6%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.8%3.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)27.2%2.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)18.3%2.0

8. Angel Martínez (L)23.6%2.0

9. David Fry (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-167+130

FDFanDuel-168+126

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 4.0 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.5 BF

Expected batters faced15.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)18.1%2.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.4%2.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)24.2%2.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.0%2.0

5. Riley Greene (L)25.4%2.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.4%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.8%1.5

8. Zach McKinstry (L)21.1%1.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)25.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, May 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K, with Jacob deGrom (TEX) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against HOU. He's missing bats at a 27% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and HOU has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jacob deGrom (TEX) (83) — about 5.7 K vs NYY: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (72) — about 6.0 K vs ATH: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (68) — about 5.9 K vs KC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Webb (SF) (65) — about 5.5 K vs SD: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) (59) — about 5.4 K vs TEX: a 20% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

TEX is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Elmer Rodríguez is the arm to exploit it (59).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (28).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Erick Fedde is the arm to exploit it (44).
ATH is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (72).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.2 strikeouts. Top play Shohei Ohtani punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, May 5, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against HOU. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, May 5, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~6.5 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.7 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.0 K), Gavin Williams (~5.9 K), Logan Webb (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, May 5, 2026?: Shohei Ohtani punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.