Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 7, 2026)?

Max Meyer (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against BAL. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 7, 2026: Max Meyer (~5.9 K), Michael King (~5.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.5 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.6 K), Jake Irvin (~5.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 61% rate — a +9% return.

Δ1.8Jose QuintanaFinal NYM @ COLwe project 4.3 K vs the 2.5 lineOver 2.5-146✗

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 2–9

TEXaway

NYYhomeTop matchup88 Final · 5–7

MINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup77 Final · 8–5

CLEaway

KChomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–8

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup89 Final · 2–6

NYMaway

COLhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–2

PITaway

AZhomeTop matchup63 Final · 12–1

ATHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup43 Final · 3–4

BALaway

MIAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–4

TBaway

BOShomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–1

STLaway

SDhomeTop matchup94

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.9%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)21.5%3.0

3. Dylan Beavers (L)24.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.0%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)25.1%2.5

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.3%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)27.4%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)29.2%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-127-105

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-149+117

FDFanDuel-138+104

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.2%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)21.1%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.2%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.9%2.9

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.3%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.6%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)24.3%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Will Benson (L)23.1%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)22.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.1%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)19.7%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)21.4%2.9

6. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.3%2.0

7. JJ Bleday (L)22.3%2.0

8. Blake Dunn (R)30.1%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+128-175

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+119-152

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.8%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)23.0%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)16.0%3.0

4. José Caballero (R)24.1%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.6%2.3

6. Ryan McMahon (L)25.9%2.0

7. Trent Grisham (L)24.2%2.0

8. Max Schuemann (R)21.2%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-127-102

BRBetRivers-152+114

DKDraftKings-134+105

FANFanatics-140+105

MBMyBookie-131-105

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.8%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.3%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)19.3%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.5%3.0

5. James Outman (L)27.3%2.5

6. Luke Keaschall (R)17.1%2.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)20.5%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)19.5%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-118-113

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-138+108

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)25.1%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.6%3.0

3. Tyler Freeman (R)16.0%3.0

4. Brenton Doyle (R)28.7%2.3

5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.9%2.0

6. Willi Castro (L)25.7%2.0

7. Jake McCarthy (L)16.8%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+150-205

BOVBovada+130-170

FANFanatics+130-170

FDFanDuel+130-174

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)13.8%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (L)24.6%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.1%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)26.9%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.4%3.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)17.6%2.9

7. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.2%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.1%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+117-152

BRBetRivers+117-157

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+114-145

FDFanDuel+110-146

MBMyBookie+111-154

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)19.0%3.0

2. Ketel Marte (L)19.5%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)26.6%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)20.2%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.6%3.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)19.9%2.1

7. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.8%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.8%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+132-172

BRBetRivers+128-175

BOVBovada+135-180

DKDraftKings+128-163

FDFanDuel+120-160

MBMyBookie+124-173

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Richie Palacios (L)21.5%3.0

2. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.9%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)18.8%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.5%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.1%2.7

6. Ben Williamson (R)20.9%2.0

7. Chandler Simpson (L)17.3%2.0

8. Cedric Mullins (L)19.5%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BOVBovada+130-170

DKDraftKings+125-160

FANFanatics+130-170

FDFanDuel+130-174

We project 4.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)19.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (R)18.9%3.0

3. Liam Hicks (L)18.6%3.0

4. Christopher Morel (R)27.6%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.8%2.9

6. Kyle Stowers (L)20.5%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)27.0%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-132+100

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-142+111

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-128-104

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.0%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.0%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.4%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.2%2.7

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.6%2.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)24.6%2.0

7. Jared Triolo (R)22.7%2.0

8. Billy Cook (R)24.1%2.0

9. Joey Bart (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-132+102

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-141+110

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-125-106

MBMyBookie-135-102

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)25.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)20.2%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.5%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.6%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)14.6%2.6

6. Brett Harris (R)24.3%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.6%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)25.3%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-112-115

BRBetRivers-112-120

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+102-130

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-116-119

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.3%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.7%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.6%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)29.3%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.4%2.2

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.9%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.0

9. Lane Thomas (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-125-106

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-124-103

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-120-115

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.3%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)18.0%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)17.6%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.2%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)23.5%2.5

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.1%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)20.2%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.6%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline-105-123

BRBetRivers-118-113

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-116-110

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Garrett Stubbs (L)20.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.3%2.2

3. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%2.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.1%2.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.5%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)21.7%2.0

7. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.1%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)19.9%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+130-169

BRBetRivers+128-175

BOVBovada+135-180

DKDraftKings+126-161

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+123-171

We project 3.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 4.3 K, but the book line is 2.5 — so the play is Over 2.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 61% rate — a +9% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)21.1%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.9%3.0

3. Mark Vientos (R)22.6%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)25.4%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)21.2%2.2

6. Carson Benge (L)25.8%2.0

7. Francisco Alvarez (R)20.9%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)21.0%2.0

9. Vidal Bruján (R)28.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-154+119

BRBetRivers-182+135

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-146+114

FDFanDuel-158+118

MBMyBookie-156+113

We project 4.3 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)23.2%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)19.3%3.0

4. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.8%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.2%2.8

6. Ramón Laureano (R)23.8%2.0

7. Ty France (R)19.9%2.0

8. Nick Castellanos (R)21.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.4% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB15.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)29.2%3.0

2. Daylen Lile (L)19.3%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.9%3.0

5. Brady House (R)27.2%3.0

6. José Tena (L)25.3%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)20.8%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)19.8%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-119-109

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-125-102

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-123-113

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.0 BF

Expected batters faced14.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%2.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)28.5%2.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.4%2.0

4. Trevor Story (R)27.6%2.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)16.5%2.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.7%1.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)21.6%1.0

8. Connor Wong (R)20.4%1.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline-118-110

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-107-119

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-121-114

We project 3.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.8 BF

Expected batters faced14.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.6%2.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.2%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.8%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.7%2.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)27.0%2.0

6. Jake Burger (R)25.4%1.8

7. Evan Carter (L)21.2%1.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)26.2%1.0

9. Sam Haggerty (L)24.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Max Meyer (MIA) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, May 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K, with Michael King (SD) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Max Meyer

Max Meyer (MIA) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against BAL. He's missing bats at a 24% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and BAL has been whiff-prone, going down 25% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael King (SD) (94) — about 5.7 K vs STL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (89) — about 5.5 K vs CIN: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (88) — about 5.6 K vs NYY: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jake Irvin (WSH) (77) — about 5.0 K vs MIN: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Christian Scott (NYM) (76) — about 5.0 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Max Meyer is the arm to exploit it (100).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (89).
NYM is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jose Quintana is the arm to exploit it (30).
TEX is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Paul Blackburn is the arm to exploit it (0).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.3 strikeouts. Top play Max Meyer punched out 5. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 7, 2026)?: Max Meyer (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against BAL. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 7, 2026: Max Meyer (~5.9 K), Michael King (~5.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.5 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.6 K), Jake Irvin (~5.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, May 7, 2026?: Max Meyer punched out 5.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.