Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 8, 2026)?

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against COL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 8, 2026: Jesús Luzardo (~6.9 K), Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Nolan McLean (~6.0 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, May 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 8, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 62% — a +12% return.

Final · 10–0

HOUaway

CINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 9–7

COLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–3

ATHaway

BALhomeTop matchup32 Final · 0–2

LAAaway

TORhomeTop matchup88 Final · 0–2

TBaway

BOShomeTop matchup29 Final · 3–2

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup45 Final · 4–6

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–4

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup53 Final · 12–8

SEAaway

CWShomeTop matchup64 Final · 0–6

NYYaway

MILhomeTop matchup81 Final · 7–1

CHCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup12 Final · 3–1

NYMaway

AZhomeTop matchup85 Final · 6–0

STLaway

SDhomeTop matchup47 Final · 1–3

ATLaway

LADhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–5

PITaway

SFhomeTop matchup53

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)27.3%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)18.1%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)20.1%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)30.5%3.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)29.0%3.0

6. Willi Castro (R)24.6%2.7

7. Troy Johnston (L)20.4%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.0%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-150+115

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-168+121

We project 6.9 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.6%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)28.8%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.2%2.3

7. Josh Lowe (L)25.2%2.0

8. Omar Martinez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-138+108

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-138+104

MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 7.0 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB30.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.5%3.0

2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.8%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)25.9%3.0

4. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)22.0%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%2.5

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.9%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.6%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)20.5%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-114-114

BRBetRivers-109-121

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-114-112

FDFanDuel-120-110

MBMyBookie-117-117

We project 6.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.9% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB29.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)20.5%3.0

2. Will Smith (R)21.5%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.6%3.0

4. Andy Pages (R)22.1%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.8%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.7%2.2

7. Hyeseong Kim (L)24.4%2.0

8. Max Muncy (L)22.1%2.0

9. Santiago Espinal (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-114-114

BRBetRivers-136+102

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-118-108

FDFanDuel-120-110

MBMyBookie-117-117

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.4% K / BF

vs LHB35.2%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)17.4%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)20.7%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)26.2%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.3%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.4%2.6

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)18.9%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)23.7%2.0

9. Amed Rosario (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BOLBetOnline-145+111

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-151+118

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-138+104

MBMyBookie-148+107

We project 7.0 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.2%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.3%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.6%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.9%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.8%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.6%2.6

6. Jorge Mateo (R)22.6%2.0

7. Austin Riley (R)27.4%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.4%2.0

9. Kyle Farmer (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BOLBetOnline-133+103

BRBetRivers-132+100

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-140+110

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-136-101

We project 6.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB27.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)22.0%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)18.5%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)18.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)20.3%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)19.9%2.7

6. Brooks Lee (R)20.2%2.0

7. Kody Clemens (L)22.2%2.0

8. Matt Wallner (L)25.9%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-123-105

BRBetRivers-132+100

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-128+101

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-125-106

MBMyBookie-127-109

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Randal Grichuk (R)20.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)30.1%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.5%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.1%3.0

5. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.5%2.9

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6%2.0

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)23.1%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)20.8%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-161+124

BRBetRivers-167+125

BOVBovada-150+115

FDFanDuel-162+122

MBMyBookie-163+117

We project 6.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Braden Shewmake (L)21.9%3.0

2. Shay Whitcomb (R)23.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.5%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)23.4%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)25.5%3.0

6. Brice Matthews (R)27.7%2.0

7. Zach Cole (L)23.5%2.0

8. Christian Vázquez (R)19.3%2.0

9. Nick Allen (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-106-120

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jared Triolo (R)19.8%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)25.3%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.5%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.3%3.0

5. Oneil Cruz (L)29.8%2.7

6. Konnor Griffin (R)25.9%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)20.6%2.0

8. Brandon Lowe (L)25.2%2.0

9. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers-117-114

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-112-114

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-113-123

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.4%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)21.9%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.6%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.1%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.0%2.1

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.0%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%2.0

9. Zack Short (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-118-113

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-117-109

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)21.1%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.4%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.3%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.5%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)22.3%2.5

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.3%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)24.6%2.0

9. Will Benson (L)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-162+120

DKDraftKings-155+121

FANFanatics-140+105

MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.7%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.3%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)20.0%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.5%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.2%2.5

7. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.8%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.3%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-113-118

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-108-118

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Leo Rivas (L)27.5%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)27.5%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)17.3%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)25.4%2.7

6. J.P. Crawford (L)20.0%2.0

7. Luke Raley (L)29.6%2.0

8. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.2%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-135+105

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-132+103

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)22.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.7%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.2%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)28.5%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.2%2.0

8. César Prieto (L)22.9%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-152+119

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.9%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.9%3.0

3. Brady House (R)23.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)23.2%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)21.9%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)22.9%2.0

7. Joey Wiemer (R)28.2%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)20.2%2.0

9. Drew Millas (R)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+139-182

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+113-144

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+130-182

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.5%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.6%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.2%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)24.6%2.5

6. Willy Adames (R)27.7%2.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)26.9%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.5%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BOLBetOnline+134-175

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+116-148

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+126-176

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)18.3%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)16.6%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.0%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.3%2.8

5. David Fry (R)24.8%2.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)23.2%2.0

7. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.5%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)18.8%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-118

BOLBetOnline-101-128

BRBetRivers-109-122

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+104-132

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.3%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.6%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.4%2.3

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.6%2.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.1%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0

8. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.6%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+107-139

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings-101-127

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+102-141

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.1%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)19.5%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.2%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.6%3.0

5. Brett Harris (R)23.9%2.7

6. Jacob Wilson (R)13.3%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)23.2%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)25.4%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline-102-127

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-104-122

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-106-130

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.0%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)20.2%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)20.3%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)21.7%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)19.7%3.0

6. Luis Rengifo (R)18.2%3.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.7%2.1

8. Sal Frelick (L)18.7%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers-110-121

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+100-127

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-107-128

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.3%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)28.6%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.9%3.0

4. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.8%2.4

5. Trevor Story (R)27.8%2.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.9%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.7%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline+100-130

DKDraftKings-103-124

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB16.8%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)21.7%3.0

2. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.5%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.1%3.0

5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.5%2.1

6. Miguel Andujar (R)18.6%2.0

7. Ramón Laureano (R)27.6%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.3%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers-110-121

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-101-126

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-107-128

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (R)18.7%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)18.7%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)20.5%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)18.9%3.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)26.3%3.0

6. Javier Sanoja (R)18.8%2.1

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.7%2.0

8. Leo Jiménez (R)23.7%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+107-136

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel-104-128

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)17.5%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.2%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)17.5%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.9%3.0

5. Dylan Beavers (L)20.0%2.0

6. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (R)22.8%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.1%2.0

9. Weston Wilson (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-109-117

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-107-128

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.4%3.0

3. Brett Baty (L)22.3%3.0

4. Vidal Bruján (L)20.9%2.8

5. Carson Benge (L)20.1%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.3%2.0

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.6%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.1%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers+107-141

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+102-130

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 4.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)22.2%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.8%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.6%2.2

6. Michael Busch (L)22.8%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.3%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.9%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-139+107

BRBetRivers-125-107

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-142+111

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-140+106

MBMyBookie-141+102

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.0%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.7%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.5%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.5%3.0

5. Elias Díaz (R)22.5%2.6

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.8%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.4%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-118-113

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-112-114

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.5%3.0

2. Ryan Vilade (R)18.9%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)18.6%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.1%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.9%2.3

6. Ben Williamson (R)20.7%2.0

7. Chandler Simpson (L)17.6%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+139-182

BRBetRivers+107-143

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+119-152

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+110-146

MBMyBookie+130-182

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Haggerty (L)24.2%2.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.8%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.2%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.2%2.0

5. Evan Carter (L)20.2%2.0

6. Andrew McCutchen (R)26.7%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)24.8%1.1

8. Justin Foscue (R)24.7%1.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)25.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-175+130

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-186+138

BOVBovada-160+120

FDFanDuel-158+118

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 3.5 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, May 8, 2026

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, May 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jesús Luzardo

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (88) — about 7.0 K vs LAA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (85) — about 6.0 K vs AZ: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Chris Sale (ATL) (84) — about 6.3 K vs LAD: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (81) — about 7.0 K vs NYY: a 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (65) — about 6.0 K vs ATL: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (88).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jesús Luzardo is the arm to exploit it (100).
WSH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robby Snelling is the arm to exploit it (45).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robbie Ray is the arm to exploit it (53).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.7 strikeouts. Top play Jesús Luzardo punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 8, 2026)?: Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against COL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 8, 2026: Jesús Luzardo (~6.9 K), Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Nolan McLean (~6.0 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, May 8, 2026?: Jesús Luzardo punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.