Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 17, 2026)?

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against HOU. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 17, 2026: Nathan Eovaldi (~6.4 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Grayson Rodriguez (~5.9 K), Michael Soroka (~5.5 K), Gavin Williams (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, May 17, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 62% — a +12% return.

Final · 3–6

MIAaway

TBhomeTop matchup54 Final · 7–3

BALaway

WSHhomeTop matchup36 Final · 6–0

PHIaway

PIThomeTop matchup98 Final · 1–8

BOSaway

ATLhomeTop matchup46 Final · 3–10

CINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–1

TORaway

DEThomeTop matchup62 Final · 6–7

NYYaway

NYMhomeTop matchup66 Final · 8–0

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–9

CHCaway

CWShomeTop matchup44 Final · 4–5

MILaway

MINhomeTop matchup40 Final · 2–0

KCaway

STLhomeTop matchup42 Final · 8–6

AZaway

COLhomeTop matchup79 Final · 10–1

SFaway

ATHhomeTop matchup46 Final · 10–1

LADaway

LAAhomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–3

SDaway

SEAhomeTop matchup68

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Matthews (R)26.5%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)20.3%3.0

3. Shay Whitcomb (R)25.8%3.0

4. Zach Cole (L)28.0%3.0

5. Zach Dezenzo (R)26.7%3.0

6. Braden Shewmake (L)18.9%3.0

7. Cam Smith (R)28.1%2.0

8. César Salazar (L)18.9%2.0

9. Nick Allen (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-159+120

BOVBovada-160+120

FDFanDuel-158+118

We project 6.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB28.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.2%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.9%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)15.1%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)18.1%2.5

6. Adolis García (R)27.6%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.5%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.9%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-155+121

FDFanDuel-142+116

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.7%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)16.5%3.0

3. Andy Pages (R)20.6%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)18.7%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.9%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)21.1%2.0

7. Dalton Rushing (L)27.4%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)16.7%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)25.5%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.9%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.1%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)19.1%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)23.6%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)26.8%2.1

7. Jake McCarthy (L)17.6%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.0%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+107-139

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+104-133

FDFanDuel-102-130

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)21.6%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.2%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)17.9%3.0

4. Spencer Steer (R)21.1%3.0

5. Sal Stewart (R)21.1%3.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)26.5%3.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.4%2.2

8. Blake Dunn (R)20.7%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings-106-120

FDFanDuel+116-142

We project 6.0 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.6%3.0

2. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.7%3.0

3. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)23.0%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%3.0

6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.7%3.0

7. Ramón Laureano (R)27.4%2.3

8. Ty France (R)19.6%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+106-130

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.4%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.5%3.0

4. Nick Gonzales (R)17.4%3.0

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)16.8%3.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)25.3%2.3

7. Jake Mangum (L)21.3%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)20.5%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+122-156

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel-102-130

We project 5.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness26.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)27.3%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.9%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.5%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)27.2%2.7

6. Jo Adell (R)23.1%2.0

7. Jose Siri (R)35.6%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.1%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+111-142

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+116-154

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.5%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.2%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)27.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.7%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)28.0%2.3

7. Max Schuemann (R)22.7%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.2%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+104-135

BRBetRivers-104-129

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+100-128

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+112-138

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)20.7%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)24.2%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.4%3.0

5. Matt Vierling (R)20.6%3.0

6. Gage Workman (L)27.1%2.4

7. Zach McKinstry (L)19.6%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.6%2.0

9. Wenceel Pérez (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-108-120

BRBetRivers-117-114

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-112-114

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-112-118

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.2%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.2%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)25.0%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)26.9%2.1

6. Jakob Marsee (L)21.5%2.0

7. Leo Jiménez (R)20.2%2.0

8. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.7%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+106-135

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+110-134

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.7%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)19.6%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.8%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.4%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)22.8%2.8

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.4%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.5%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.5%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+120-156

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+122-156

FDFanDuel+116-154

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.6%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)16.5%2.5

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.2%2.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

7. Andrés Giménez (L)18.9%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.8%2.0

9. Davis Schneider (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-133+103

BRBetRivers-159+118

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-135+106

FDFanDuel-128+104

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.8%3.0

2. Mickey Gasper (L)18.0%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.0%3.0

4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.4%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.7%2.6

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.3%2.0

7. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.0%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)23.5%2.0

9. Nick Sogard (L)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-156+120

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-160+125

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-150+122

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Harrison Bader (R)24.4%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.0%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.1%3.0

5. Willy Adames (R)26.2%3.0

6. Daniel Susac (R)19.4%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)22.7%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.6%2.0

9. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-145+111

BRBetRivers-127-105

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-136+107

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-134+110

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Evan Carter (L)18.9%3.0

2. Sam Haggerty (L)22.7%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)19.8%3.0

4. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.0%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.2%3.0

6. Alejandro Osuna (L)19.8%2.4

7. Jake Burger (R)23.7%2.0

8. Justin Foscue (R)24.1%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-152+117

BRBetRivers-165+123

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-152+119

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-140+114

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.9%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.2%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.6%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)24.3%2.3

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.7%2.0

7. Edgar Quero (L)24.6%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.4%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers-109-122

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-108-118

FDFanDuel-110-120

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.5%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)19.1%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.3%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.8%2.9

6. César Prieto (L)23.9%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.2%2.0

8. Thomas Saggese (R)25.1%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-135+105

BRBetRivers-159+120

DKDraftKings-161+126

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.8%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.8%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.0%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.8%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)26.5%2.9

6. Dominic Smith (L)18.7%2.0

7. Jorge Mateo (R)21.0%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.7%2.0

9. José Azócar (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-123-105

BRBetRivers-125-106

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-139+109

FDFanDuel-132+100

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.8%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)20.7%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)14.9%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)23.9%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (L)24.6%3.0

6. Sal Frelick (L)15.6%2.5

7. Andrew Vaughn (R)19.7%2.0

8. Joey Ortiz (R)21.2%2.0

9. Luis Rengifo (L)15.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+113-147

BRBetRivers+148-200

BOVBovada+130-170

DKDraftKings+126-161

FDFanDuel+136-168

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Leo Rivas (L)27.8%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.6%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)16.2%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.0%3.0

5. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.0%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)20.8%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)20.9%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)28.3%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.5%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.4%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.5%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.5%3.0

6. Joey Wiemer (R)29.8%2.0

7. José Tena (L)24.4%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)17.8%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-125-103

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-127-101

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-138+104

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB16.7%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)15.3%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.6%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.4%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.8%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)29.3%3.0

6. Isaac Collins (L)21.7%2.1

7. Lane Thomas (R)25.9%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.8%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-120-108

BRBetRivers-127-106

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-132+104

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-120-102

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB17.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Daniel Schneemann (L)24.7%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.4%3.0

3. Petey Halpin (L)22.8%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.8%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)19.5%2.5

6. Steven Kwan (L)12.9%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.1%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.9%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-118-110

BRBetRivers-129-104

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-130+102

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-130-102

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.2% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)17.3%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (R)19.4%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)18.4%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)21.2%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)19.3%3.0

6. Victor Caratini (R)24.4%2.0

7. Tristan Gray (L)28.3%2.0

8. Ryan Kreidler (R)20.5%2.0

9. James Outman (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-167+131

FDFanDuel-158+118

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)24.0%3.0

2. Carlos Cortes (L)14.8%3.0

3. Colby Thomas (R)23.6%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.2%3.0

5. Alika Williams (R)25.3%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.9%2.3

7. Lawrence Butler (L)25.1%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (L)19.7%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-105-123

BRBetRivers-107-125

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-110-115

FDFanDuel-114-114

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.2%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.0%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)17.5%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)19.6%2.9

5. Jorge Barrosa (L)27.4%2.0

6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.3%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)21.8%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.9%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+127-167

BRBetRivers+112-148

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+107-137

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+110-134

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)19.8%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.5%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)19.1%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)23.1%3.0

5. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.4%2.8

6. Brett Baty (L)24.1%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)19.8%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)21.0%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-127-102

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-131+103

FDFanDuel-138+104

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.3% K / BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.1%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)19.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)28.1%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.1%2.6

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.1%2.0

7. Miguel Amaya (R)22.1%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.0%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+118-157

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+118-144

We project 3.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)18.4%2.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.3%2.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.3%2.0

4. Tyler O'Neill (R)27.0%2.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.5%1.6

6. Leody Taveras (R)25.2%1.0

7. Blaze Alexander (R)25.1%1.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%1.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, May 17, 2026

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, May 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Paul Skenes (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against HOU. He's missing bats at a 24% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and HOU has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Paul Skenes (PIT) (98) — about 5.9 K vs PHI: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) (88) — about 5.9 K vs LAD: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (79) — about 5.5 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (76) — about 6.0 K vs CIN: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (68) — about 5.5 K vs SD: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 26% of the time in this spot — Roki Sasaki is the arm to exploit it (67).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Richard Lovelady is the arm to exploit it (0).
HOU is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nathan Eovaldi is the arm to exploit it (100).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Colin Rea is the arm to exploit it (44).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.5 strikeouts. Top play Nathan Eovaldi punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 17, 2026)?: Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against HOU. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 17, 2026: Nathan Eovaldi (~6.4 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Grayson Rodriguez (~5.9 K), Michael Soroka (~5.5 K), Gavin Williams (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, May 17, 2026?: Nathan Eovaldi punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.