Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 16, 2026)?

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 16, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.7 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.3 K), Davis Martin (~5.8 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.7 K), Payton Tolle (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, May 16, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 62% rate — a +12% return.

Δ2.5Huascar BrazobánFinal NYY @ NYMwe project 3.0 K vs the 0.5 lineOver 0.5-204✓

Δ1.5Mason FluhartyFinal TOR @ DETwe project 3.0 K vs the 1.5 lineOver 1.5+155✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 2–1

TORaway

DEThomeTop matchup40 Final · 2–4

KCaway

STLhomeTop matchup34 Final · 2–4

AZaway

COLhomeTop matchup45 Final · 3–13

BALaway

WSHhomeTop matchup36 Final · 6–0

PHIaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–5

MIAaway

TBhomeTop matchup26 Final · 4–7

CINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup37 Final · 1–4

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup99 Final · 3–8

CHCaway

CWShomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–1

MILaway

MINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 7–4

SDaway

SEAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–2

BOSaway

ATLhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–6

NYYaway

NYMhomeTop matchup35 Final · 15–2

LADaway

LAAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–4

SFaway

ATHhomeTop matchup57

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.8%3.0

2. Konnor Griffin (R)24.7%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)20.7%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.5%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)23.0%3.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)22.1%3.0

7. Brandon Lowe (L)24.9%2.9

8. Jared Triolo (R)20.8%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+113-144

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+112-148

We project 6.7 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.9%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Allen (R)21.3%3.0

2. Isaac Paredes (R)20.4%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)22.5%3.0

5. Braden Shewmake (L)18.3%2.4

6. Brice Matthews (R)27.1%2.0

7. Zach Cole (L)27.8%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)28.3%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+110-140

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+110-146

We project 6.3 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB27.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.3%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.3%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)27.0%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.5%3.0

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.8%2.5

7. Matt Shaw (R)21.0%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.5%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-177+132

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-159+124

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-168+136

We project 5.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)24.1%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.4%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.3%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.0%2.9

6. Miguel Andujar (R)19.6%2.0

7. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.1%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)27.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline-101-128

BRBetRivers-105-129

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+100-128

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+102-124

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB27.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.3%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (R)13.0%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)25.2%3.0

4. Jorge Mateo (R)29.2%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.2%2.6

6. Michael Harris II (L)23.1%2.0

7. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.0%2.0

8. Sandy León (R)22.3%2.0

9. José Azócar (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-177+132

BOVBovada-180+135

FDFanDuel-152+114

We project 5.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)18.9%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)18.6%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.0%3.0

4. Trevor Larnach (L)19.7%2.2

5. Josh Bell (L)24.9%2.0

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.6%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)25.4%2.0

9. James Outman (L)27.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+120-156

BRBetRivers+135-182

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+109-139

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+120-160

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.9%3.0

2. Santiago Espinal (R)18.6%3.0

3. Dalton Rushing (L)27.6%3.0

4. Will Smith (R)18.5%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)20.3%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)21.1%2.4

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.1%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)20.0%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-120-108

BRBetRivers-125-106

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-117-109

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-118-104

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.6%3.0

2. Carlos Narváez (R)26.0%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.6%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.6%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.1%3.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.6

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.8%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.7%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-175+130

BOLBetOnline-156+121

BRBetRivers-155+116

DKDraftKings-147+115

FANFanatics-160+120

We project 5.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)24.1%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.1%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.5%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.1%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)14.1%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.8%2.4

7. Colby Thomas (R)23.6%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.9%2.0

9. Jonah Heim (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-102-125

FDFanDuel-104-128

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.2%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.6%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.6%3.0

4. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.8%2.9

5. Luis Rengifo (R)17.7%2.0

6. Chad Patrick (R)22.0%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)18.6%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (R)18.4%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-109-122

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+102-130

FDFanDuel-102-120

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.9%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.0%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.8%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)24.4%3.0

6. Randal Grichuk (R)20.8%2.1

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)25.2%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.7%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-148+112

DKDraftKings-141+111

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)24.5%3.0

2. Brenton Doyle (R)24.4%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)20.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)29.5%3.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)29.3%3.0

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.0%3.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)19.8%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)26.7%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-127-102

BRBetRivers-141+106

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-125-102

FDFanDuel-130-102

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)18.9%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.7%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.5%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%2.3

6. Myles Straw (R)16.5%2.0

7. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.3%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-161+124

BRBetRivers-175+130

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-157+123

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-148+122

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)26.5%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (R)24.3%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.1%3.0

4. Spencer Steer (R)19.4%3.0

5. JJ Bleday (L)21.9%2.1

6. Matt McLain (R)22.2%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)22.1%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.7%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-152+117

BRBetRivers-162+120

BOVBovada-170+130

FDFanDuel-168+136

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maverick Handley (R)28.9%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)23.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.4%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.2%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.1%2.3

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.3%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)20.0%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)29.4%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-162+127

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-142+116

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)24.4%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.6%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)20.6%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)19.4%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)20.8%2.8

6. A.J. Ewing (L)23.6%2.0

7. MJ Melendez (L)22.5%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)24.8%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+112-143

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+110-146

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)15.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.8%3.0

5. Elias Díaz (R)23.5%2.8

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.4%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.1%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)19.0%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-141+108

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-132+104

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-138+112

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.0%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.5%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.7%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.6%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.4%2.7

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.8%2.0

7. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.2%2.0

8. Joey Wiemer (R)30.1%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)18.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-156+121

BRBetRivers-180+133

DKDraftKings-164+128

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.6%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)16.7%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.9%2.4

5. Luke Raley (L)27.9%2.0

6. Cole Young (L)21.0%2.0

7. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.0%2.0

8. Jhonny Pereda (R)24.7%2.0

9. Connor Joe (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-167+127

BRBetRivers-175+128

BOVBovada-180+135

DKDraftKings-170+132

FDFanDuel-174+130

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Masyn Winn (R)16.4%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)17.5%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)23.4%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)19.0%3.0

5. José Fermín (R)20.3%3.0

6. Thomas Saggese (R)26.2%2.2

7. Nathan Church (L)20.7%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)26.5%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+123-165

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+127-162

FDFanDuel+124-166

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.3%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.5%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.4%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.3%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)27.1%3.0

6. Jakob Marsee (L)22.8%2.6

7. Javier Sanoja (R)17.2%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.1%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-154+119

BRBetRivers-159+120

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-152+119

FDFanDuel-144+118

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.1%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.1%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)16.0%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)23.0%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)20.8%3.0

7. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%3.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.1

9. Taylor Walls (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+124-161

BRBetRivers+123-165

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+125-160

FANFanatics+130-170

FDFanDuel+118-158

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.9%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.9%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)23.7%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.1%3.0

5. Willy Adames (R)25.9%3.0

6. Matt Chapman (R)25.5%2.4

7. Drew Gilbert (L)19.3%2.0

8. Harrison Bader (R)24.2%2.0

9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-128-101

BRBetRivers-139+104

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-135+106

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-128+104

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.2%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)29.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.8%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)15.3%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)17.8%2.3

6. Adolis García (R)26.4%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.3%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.3%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+101-129

FDFanDuel+102-124

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB16.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.4%3.0

3. Zach Neto (R)21.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)26.7%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.6%3.0

6. Oswald Peraza (R)22.5%3.0

7. Nolan Schanuel (L)20.9%2.1

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.8%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-180+133

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-153+120

FDFanDuel-152+114

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.9%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)13.8%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.1%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)18.3%2.0

6. Steven Kwan (L)13.1%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.9%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)25.2%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.6 BF

Expected batters faced15.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)23.5%2.0

2. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.0%2.0

3. Josh Jung (R)19.4%2.0

4. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.3%2.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.8%2.0

6. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.8%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)23.7%1.6

8. Danny Jansen (R)23.4%1.0

9. Justin Foscue (R)22.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)18.8%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.6%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.3%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)20.1%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.4%2.3

6. Jorge Barrosa (L)27.0%2.0

7. Jose Fernandez (R)22.3%2.0

8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.7%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-139+107

BRBetRivers-148+112

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-131+103

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-134+110

We project 3.7 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 3.0 K, but the book line is 0.5 — so the play is Over 0.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 62% rate — a +12% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.0 BF

Expected batters faced14.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)22.3%2.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)27.2%2.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)16.8%2.0

4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%2.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%2.0

6. Amed Rosario (R)23.2%1.0

7. Trent Grisham (L)18.8%1.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.5%1.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-204+155

We project 3.0 K vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 3.0 K, but the book line is 1.5 — so the play is Over 1.5.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.9 BF

Expected batters faced12.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.0%2.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.0%2.0

3. Gage Workman (L)21.6%2.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)18.2%1.9

5. Riley Greene (L)25.6%1.0

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.8%1.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%1.0

8. Zack Short (R)22.5%1.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)22.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+155-204

We project 3.0 K vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, May 16, 2026

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, May 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Jacob deGrom (TEX) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PIT has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 25 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jacob deGrom (TEX) (99) — about 6.3 K vs HOU: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Davis Martin (CWS) (84) — about 5.8 K vs CHC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (72) — about 5.7 K vs SD: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (72) — about 5.5 K vs ATL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Logan Henderson (MIL) (71) — about 5.5 K vs MIN: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (45).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cade Cavalli is the arm to exploit it (36).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (100).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Justin Wrobleski is the arm to exploit it (21).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.1 strikeouts. Top play Cristopher Sánchez punched out 13. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 16, 2026)?: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 16, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.7 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.3 K), Davis Martin (~5.8 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.7 K), Payton Tolle (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, May 16, 2026?: Cristopher Sánchez punched out 13.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.