Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 21, 2026)?

José Soriano (LAA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against ATH. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 21, 2026: José Soriano (~5.8 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.3 K), Luis Severino (~5.6 K), Eduardo Rodriguez (~5.3 K), Dustin May (~4.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 64% rate — a +15% return.

Δ1.9Braydon FisherFinal TOR @ NYYwe project 3.4 K vs the 1.5 lineOver 1.5+141✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 3–1

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–2

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup92 Final · 2–1

NYMaway

WSHhomeTop matchup67 Final · 9–3

ATLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–0

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup68 Final · 3–2

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–2

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup77

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Alika Williams (R)21.9%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)20.2%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)24.0%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.1%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.4%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.2%2.6

7. Henry Bolte (R)21.9%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.2%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+102-132

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-101-127

FDFanDuel+106-130

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.4%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.5%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)23.8%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.0%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.1%2.6

7. José Fermín (R)20.1%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.4%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+105-135

BRBetRivers+106-139

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

FDFanDuel+116-154

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.8%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.8%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.3%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.6%3.0

6. Josh Lowe (L)25.4%3.0

7. Jorge Soler (R)28.5%2.2

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)27.4%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-130+101

BRBetRivers-132+100

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-131+103

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-132+100

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)24.7%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)20.9%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.6%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.9%3.0

5. Kyle Karros (R)26.0%3.0

6. Jake McCarthy (L)20.5%3.0

7. Mickey Moniak (L)28.1%2.2

8. Troy Johnston (L)20.6%2.0

9. TJ Rumfield (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers+102-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-106-120

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+110-134

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)26.9%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.5%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)20.5%3.0

4. Spencer Horwitz (L)18.3%3.0

5. Konnor Griffin (R)23.7%3.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.1%2.2

7. Jake Mangum (L)21.9%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)22.0%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-145+111

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-147+115

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-134+110

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.0%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.7%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)19.8%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.2%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)15.8%2.2

6. Andrés Giménez (L)17.9%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)23.4%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (R)25.4%2.0

9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+118-159

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+119-152

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+120-148

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Daniel Schneemann (L)24.9%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)18.2%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)14.5%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)23.5%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)18.9%2.1

6. Angel Martínez (L)22.7%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)13.4%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.2%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers-121-109

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-121-106

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-102-120

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB29.5%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.7%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.3%3.0

3. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)22.7%2.1

5. Dylan Crews (R)23.0%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)19.5%2.0

7. Luis García Jr. (L)21.0%2.0

8. José Tena (L)23.2%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (R)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-117-114

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-110-116

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-112-118

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)18.7%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.9%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)18.4%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)22.8%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)22.9%2.4

6. Marcus Semien (R)18.4%2.0

7. A.J. Ewing (L)22.2%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)27.0%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-175+134

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-165+129

FDFanDuel-144+118

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)21.2%3.0

2. Michael Harris II (L)20.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.2%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)18.8%3.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)19.1%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)25.5%3.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.6%2.7

8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.2%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-124-108

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-126-101

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-122+100

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.6%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)12.5%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.3%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.3%3.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)20.7%2.0

6. Christopher Morel (R)25.1%2.0

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.4%2.0

8. Pete Fairbanks (R)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)16.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-127-106

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-138+108

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)19.7%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.3%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)22.4%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

5. Gage Workman (L)21.6%2.2

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.0%2.0

7. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.4%2.0

8. Colt Keith (L)21.4%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+108-138

FDFanDuel+118-158

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 3.4 K, but the book line is 1.5 — so the play is Over 1.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 64% rate — a +15% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)22.7%2.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)28.9%2.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.0%2.0

4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.7%2.0

5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%1.8

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%1.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.6%1.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.7%1.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)21.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+141-185

We project 3.4 K vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.9 BF

Expected batters faced16.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)16.6%2.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.8%2.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.8%2.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)19.3%2.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.0%2.0

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.7%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.8%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)25.8%1.9

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+139-182

We project 2.7 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026

José Soriano (LAA) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K, with Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: José Soriano

José Soriano (LAA) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against ATH. He's missing bats at a 25% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and ATH has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (92) — about 5.3 K vs STL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Luis Severino (ATH) (81) — about 5.6 K vs LAA: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) (77) — about 5.3 K vs COL: a 19% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Dustin May (STL) (73) — about 4.7 K vs PIT: a 20% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (68) — about 5.0 K vs TOR: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Luis Severino is the arm to exploit it (81).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (77).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Braydon Fisher is the arm to exploit it (31).
ATH is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — José Soriano is the arm to exploit it (100).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.3 strikeouts. Top play José Soriano punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

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Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 21, 2026)?: José Soriano (LAA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against ATH. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 21, 2026: José Soriano (~5.8 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.3 K), Luis Severino (~5.6 K), Eduardo Rodriguez (~5.3 K), Dustin May (~4.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, May 21, 2026?: José Soriano punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026

★★ Plays of the Day

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

Workload23.6 BF

Projection5.8 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

Workload23.6 BF

Projection5.3 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

Workload24.2 BF

Projection5.6 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

Workload24.2 BF

Projection5.3 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

Workload23.2 BF

Projection4.7 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

Workload22.2 BF

Projection5.0 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

Workload22.1 BF

Projection4.7 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

Workload21.1 BF

Projection5.3 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

Workload22.4 BF

Projection4.8 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

Workload24.7 BF

Projection4.6 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

Workload22.0 BF

Projection4.7 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.4% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

Workload22.2 BF

Projection4.8 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

Workload13.8 BF

Projection3.4 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.3% K / BF

Workload16.9 BF

Projection2.7 K

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

How the board graded

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Top strikeout spot: José Soriano

The rest of the top of the board

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

How it played out

How to read these strikeout matchups

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