Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?

Ryan Weathers (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against ATH. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 30, 2026: Ryan Weathers (~6.4 K), Reid Detmers (~5.8 K), Parker Messick (~5.5 K), Trey Yesavage (~5.8 K), Jesús Luzardo (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 30, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 64% — a +15% return.

Final · 1–7

DETaway

CWShomeTop matchup47 Final · 4–9

SDaway

WSHhomeTop matchup66 Final · 6–7

KCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup45 Final · 5–6

TORaway

BALhomeTop matchup80 Final · 9–10

MINaway

PIThomeTop matchup41 Final · 9–1

BOSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup84 Final · 14–3

LAAaway

TBhomeTop matchup99 Final · 1–6

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup44 Final · 2–9

MILaway

HOUhomeTop matchup70 Final · 6–1

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup52 Final · 5–2

ATLaway

CINhomeTop matchup43 Final · 3–8

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup22 Final · 4–6

NYYaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

AZaway

SEAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 4–3

PHIaway

LADhomeTop matchup79

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)25.0%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)28.8%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.5%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)27.6%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.3%3.0

6. Henry Bolte (R)23.4%2.5

7. Zack Gelof (R)23.0%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)17.8%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-155+116

BOVBovada-180+135

FDFanDuel-180+134

We project 6.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB30.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.9%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.4%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)16.0%3.0

4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)21.1%3.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)16.1%3.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.6%2.8

7. Nick Fortes (R)17.5%2.0

8. Cedric Mullins (L)16.4%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+102-136

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+108-138

FDFanDuel-106-125

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB27.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.6%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)27.4%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)18.8%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)19.8%3.0

5. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.7%3.0

6. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.9%2.0

7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)20.3%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)22.5%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BRBetRivers-159+120

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-158+123

FDFanDuel-144+118

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)24.4%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.9%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.3%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.0%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.6%2.3

6. Coby Mayo (R)27.2%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)22.2%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)20.2%2.0

9. Colton Cowser (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+122-156

FDFanDuel+104-138

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.4%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)21.6%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)22.6%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)18.5%3.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)18.9%3.0

6. Will Smith (R)21.6%2.3

7. Max Muncy (L)22.7%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)18.3%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+111-142

FDFanDuel-108-122

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)25.8%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)24.5%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)23.5%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)17.3%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)24.1%3.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.7%2.5

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.3%2.0

8. Gary Sánchez (R)21.4%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+130-170

DKDraftKings+123-157

FDFanDuel+136-168

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)20.2%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)25.0%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.2%2.4

6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.3%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.6%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)20.7%2.0

9. Anthony Volpe (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-152+115

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-146+115

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-128+104

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)16.0%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.9%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.8%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.2%3.0

5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.1%3.0

6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)30.8%2.3

7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.8%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.1%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BRBetRivers-121-110

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-126-101

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-110-110

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.7%3.0

2. Gavin Sheets (L)22.7%3.0

3. Miguel Andujar (R)19.1%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.9%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)22.4%3.0

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.4%2.8

7. Ty France (R)24.7%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)23.9%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOVBovada+145-190

DKDraftKings+121-155

FDFanDuel+146-180

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Adam Frazier (L)25.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)21.6%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.0%3.0

5. Jose Siri (R)26.9%2.6

6. Jo Adell (R)25.6%2.0

7. Oswald Peraza (R)23.5%2.0

8. Donovan Walton (L)22.4%2.0

9. Sebastián Rivero (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-135+105

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-138+112

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.9%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)22.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.6%3.0

4. Steward Berroa (L)22.3%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.4%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.6%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.3%2.0

8. Adolis García (R)29.4%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-143+107

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-132+103

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-140+114

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Clayton Beeter (R)22.0%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.0%3.0

3. Daylen Lile (L)20.3%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.0%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)18.5%2.8

6. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.2%2.0

7. Dylan Crews (R)21.8%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)18.7%2.0

9. Curtis Mead (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+106-141

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+114-145

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+106-140

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.8 BF

Expected batters faced17.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.2%2.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.2%2.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.7%2.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)23.1%2.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)29.1%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)23.6%2.0

7. Jimmy Crooks (L)29.5%2.0

8. Bryan Torres (L)20.0%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)23.7%1.8

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-175+130

BRBetRivers-162+120

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-164+128

FDFanDuel-162+122

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)17.3%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.3%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)15.3%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.2%2.6

5. Stuart Fairchild (R)27.0%2.0

6. David Fry (R)22.4%2.0

7. Petey Halpin (L)22.8%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-152+119

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-154+116

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.1%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)18.7%3.0

3. Colson Montgomery (L)25.4%3.0

4. Tristan Peters (L)22.8%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)20.7%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.3%2.4

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.1%2.0

8. Sam Antonacci (L)23.8%2.0

9. Rikuu Nishida (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+120-160

FDFanDuel+118-158

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%3.0

2. Josh Jung (R)19.9%3.0

3. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.6%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)25.1%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.8%3.0

6. Sam Haggerty (L)22.4%3.0

7. Danny Jansen (R)24.1%2.3

8. Justin Foscue (R)24.7%2.0

9. Michael Helman (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-134+100

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-137+108

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.5%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)12.3%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)17.3%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)27.0%2.3

5. Jakob Marsee (L)19.5%2.0

6. Leo Jiménez (R)19.1%2.0

7. Owen Caissie (L)32.1%2.0

8. Christopher Morel (R)27.1%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+115-146

FDFanDuel+120-148

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)25.4%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (R)28.0%2.8

3. Sal Stewart (R)20.9%2.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)26.8%2.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)18.4%2.0

6. JJ Bleday (L)22.9%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.0%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)21.4%2.0

9. TJ Friedl (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-110-121

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-125-102

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-114-114

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.5%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.9%3.0

3. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.7%3.0

4. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)15.5%3.0

5. Salvador Perez (R)20.4%2.3

6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.1%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)25.1%2.0

8. Lane Thomas (R)27.1%2.0

9. Nick Loftin (R)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOVBovada+135-180

DKDraftKings+130-166

FDFanDuel+136-168

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.5%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)25.1%3.0

3. Gage Workman (L)21.6%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)28.0%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.3%2.3

6. Colt Keith (L)21.5%2.0

7. Wenceel Pérez (R)19.8%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.8%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+102-136

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+118-151

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+114-140

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)25.4%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)17.6%3.0

3. Josh Bell (L)21.3%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)23.4%3.0

5. Austin Martin (R)20.5%3.0

6. James Outman (L)31.1%2.3

7. Orlando Arcia (R)19.4%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)16.9%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)29.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+102-124

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.6%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.6%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)22.3%3.0

4. Taylor Trammell (L)26.6%2.6

5. Isaac Paredes (R)16.5%2.0

6. Cam Smith (R)26.0%2.0

7. Nick Allen (R)21.0%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)21.9%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-126-102

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.4%3.0

2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.1%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)21.6%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)17.2%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)27.4%2.9

6. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.2%2.0

7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)21.6%2.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)23.1%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-141+110

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-152+124

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.1%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)22.5%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.2%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)14.4%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)21.7%3.0

5. Luke Raley (L)28.6%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)19.7%2.4

7. Dominic Canzone (L)22.9%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)27.8%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-185+135

BRBetRivers-157+117

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-163+127

FDFanDuel-158+118

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)16.2%3.0

2. Tyler Callihan (L)21.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.6%3.0

4. Nick Gonzales (R)17.9%3.0

5. Oneil Cruz (L)29.2%3.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)23.0%2.7

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)24.7%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)19.6%2.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-156+122

FDFanDuel-158+118

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB15.9%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.8%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)17.6%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.8%3.0

4. Daulton Varsho (L)21.8%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.9%3.0

6. Myles Straw (R)16.7%2.1

7. Ernie Clement (R)13.5%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.9%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-134+102

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-129+101

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-130+106

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)21.1%3.0

2. TJ Rumfield (L)17.2%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.5%3.0

4. Willi Castro (L)25.4%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.2%2.9

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.8%2.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)22.1%2.0

8. Tyler Freeman (R)13.5%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+110-140

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+104-138

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB16.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.1%3.0

2. Michael Harris II (L)18.7%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.5%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)18.0%3.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)19.6%2.4

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.0%2.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.8%2.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)21.8%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+117-157

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+111-142

FDFanDuel+114-140

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)20.9%2.9

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.0%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%2.0

6. Matt Chapman (R)21.8%2.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.7%2.0

8. Eric Haase (R)25.5%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)18.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+107-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+106-135

FDFanDuel+104-128

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.9 BF

Expected batters faced15.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)21.1%2.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.2%2.0

3. Juan Soto (L)18.3%2.0

4. Jared Young (L)23.8%2.0

5. Mark Vientos (R)21.1%2.0

6. A.J. Ewing (L)27.1%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)19.7%1.9

8. Vidal Bruján (L)20.9%1.0

9. Hayden Senger (R)23.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers-112-120

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-104-123

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-118-112

We project 3.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026

Ryan Weathers (NYY) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, May 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Reid Detmers (LAA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Ryan Weathers

Ryan Weathers (NYY) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against ATH. He's missing bats at a 25% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and ATH has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Reid Detmers (LAA) (99) — about 5.8 K vs TB: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (84) — about 5.5 K vs BOS: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Trey Yesavage (TOR) (80) — about 5.8 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (79) — about 5.7 K vs LAD: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Peter Lambert (HOU) (70) — about 5.5 K vs MIL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Drew Rasmussen is the arm to exploit it (58).
ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Ryan Weathers is the arm to exploit it (100).
STL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ben Brown is the arm to exploit it (52).
DET is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Anthony Kay is the arm to exploit it (41).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.6 strikeouts. Top play Ryan Weathers punched out 10. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?: Ryan Weathers (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against ATH. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 30, 2026: Ryan Weathers (~6.4 K), Reid Detmers (~5.8 K), Parker Messick (~5.5 K), Trey Yesavage (~5.8 K), Jesús Luzardo (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, May 30, 2026?: Ryan Weathers punched out 10.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.