MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsSaturday, July 11, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60%a +9% return.

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB28.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs STL8
Jun 18@ TEX7
Jun 24vs LAD9
Jun 30@ HOU5
Jul 5@ NYY9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.5%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.2%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)29.3%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)25.0%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)22.6%2.9
7. Oswald Peraza (R)25.4%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)21.5%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.8%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ MIL3
Jun 20vs NYM5
Jun 25@ WSH6
Jun 30vs PIT9
Jul 6@ KC1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.2%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)20.8%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)26.2%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.0%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)24.4%3.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%3.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)20.9%2.0
8. James Outman (L)24.8%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.8% K / BF

vs LHB28.3%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs MIA4
Jun 17@ ATH7
Jun 24vs SEA10
Jun 29@ PHI8
Jul 4@ WSH7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.2%3.0
2. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.6%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.0%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.8%3.0
6. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.7
7. Cooper Pratt (R)17.6%2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)14.2%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+116-155
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+115-146
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+120-154

We project 6.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.1% K / BF

vs LHB29.4%
vs RHB24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ TOR7
Jun 19vs CIN13
Jun 25@ BOS9
Jun 30vs DET5
Jul 6@ TB8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)25.1%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)20.3%3.0
3. Dylan Crews (R)22.8%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%3.0
5. Jacob Young (R)19.0%3.0
6. Andrés Chaparro (R)23.0%2.3
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)24.3%2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)16.5%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB28.1%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ BAL5
Jun 16vs BAL10
Jun 21vs BOS8
Jun 27@ CLE7
Jul 4vs TOR7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)21.4%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)23.0%2.4
7. Taylor Walls (L)23.8%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)17.7%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB27.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs LAA4
Jun 13@ CWS7
Jun 20vs BAL6
Jun 27@ SD4
Jul 4vs SD10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.6%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.5%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.9%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.8%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)23.0%3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.1%3.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)23.2%2.2
8. Tommy Troy (R)23.3%2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.4% K / BF

vs LHB28.3%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ LAA5
Jun 19vs WSH5
Jun 24vs KC7
Jun 30@ KC5
Jul 6vs NYY10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)24.3%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)21.0%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.4%2.8
4. Cal Raleigh (L)28.7%2.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)12.8%2.0
6. Luke Raley (L)29.1%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)18.9%2.0
8. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)25.4%2.0
9. Buddy Kennedy (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.0%
vs RHB26.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs NYM5
May 27@ TOR9
Jun 24vs TEX1
Jun 30@ COL8
Jul 5@ ATH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)21.3%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.3%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)15.9%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.2%2.9
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.5%2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)24.9%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)23.4%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 27vs LAA6
Jun 17@ HOU3
Jun 23vs NYY6
Jun 29@ NYY10
Jul 5@ TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.9%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.8%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.1%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.3%2.7
5. Alec Bohm (R)16.9%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)19.0%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)27.3%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ ATH3
Jun 17vs CLE6
Jun 23@ CIN10
Jun 30vs CIN7
Jul 5@ AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)18.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.9%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)30.9%2.8
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.6%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.3%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)30.1%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)23.2%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+115-149
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+111-141
FDFanDuel+132-170

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs SEA5
Jun 17@ SEA12
Jun 22@ LAA9
Jun 28vs WSH2
Jul 5@ CIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)28.4%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.0%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.3%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)24.7%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)16.5%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)22.1%3.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)22.6%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)16.1%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ LAA6
Jun 17vs DET5
Jun 23@ TOR6
Jun 29vs MIN4
Jul 5vs TB6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)22.3%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.6%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)21.8%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.6%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)24.6%3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.6%2.2
7. Evan Carter (L)23.5%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)17.1%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs NYY3
Jun 18@ BOS6
Jun 24vs HOU5
Jun 29vs NYM3
Jul 5@ SEA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.6%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)24.5%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.2%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)23.2%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)19.1%3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.3%2.8
7. Luis Campusano (R)20.6%2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R)18.1%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs COL6
Jun 18vs LAA7
Jun 24@ SF9
Jun 29vs LAD5
Jul 5vs MIA1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)20.3%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)32.0%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.6%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.5%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (R)24.6%2.7
6. Chase Meidroth (R)20.4%2.0
7. Andrew Benintendi (L)27.7%2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L)25.2%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs ATL2
Jun 20@ PHI2
Jun 25vs CHC5
Jul 1@ TOR4
Jul 6@ ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)21.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.6%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)26.4%3.0
4. Romy Gonzalez (R)22.1%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.1%2.9
6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.2%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)28.1%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)23.3%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)18.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs HOU1
Jun 18vs STL6
Jun 24@ TB5
Jun 30vs TB0
Jul 6vs PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)20.5%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)15.6%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)21.0%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)25.6%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)27.7%3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)22.9%2.1
7. Colton Cowser (L)30.3%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)23.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs PHI7
Jun 18vs CLE3
Jun 24@ CIN5
Jul 1vs CIN7
Jul 6@ STL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (R)19.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)27.9%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)21.3%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.7%2.6
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.5%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)20.4%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)19.8%2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)22.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ ATH4
Jun 19vs PIT8
Jun 24vs BOS4
Jul 1vs MIA7
Jul 6@ LAD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)23.2%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)13.3%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)17.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)25.5%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)26.8%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.9%2.6
7. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)24.6%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ MIN4
Jun 18@ KC2
Jun 24vs AZ3
Jun 30@ ATL9
Jul 5@ CHC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)21.0%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)12.9%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.9%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)21.6%2.8
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.8%2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)19.1%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)27.1%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)25.1%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs CLE5
Jun 11@ KC3
Jun 16vs MIN4
Jun 28@ TOR5
Jul 5vs DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)21.5%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.2%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.1%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)23.5%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%2.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)25.0%2.0
7. Cam Smith (R)21.8%2.0
8. Yainer Diaz (R)17.9%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs AZ5
Jun 17vs NYM2
Jun 23vs MIL6
Jun 29@ MIL4
Jul 5vs BAL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.7%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)16.6%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)21.9%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.1%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)28.5%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.7%2.4
7. Michael Conforto (L)20.9%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)18.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nick Lodolo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB18.7%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs MIA6
Jun 19@ COL1
Jun 25vs SEA4
Jun 30@ PHI6
Jul 5@ WSH0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.6%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.0%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.8%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.8%2.3
7. Sal Frelick (L)14.2%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)17.6%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ AZ6
May 26vs AZ3
Jun 24vs ATH4
Jun 29@ AZ3
Jul 5@ COL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.6%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)21.9%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)19.9%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)26.9%3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)15.4%2.6
6. Tyler Freeman (R)15.3%2.0
7. Willi Castro (L)25.6%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.3%2.0
9. Braxton Fulford (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.0 BF

Expected batters faced17.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 14vs MIA6
Apr 21@ WSH1
Jun 26@ SF1
Jul 1vs STL6
Jul 6vs NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.2%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)20.8%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.8%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)26.4%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.9%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)18.7%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)22.5%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)20.4%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)21.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.3 BF

Expected batters faced19.3
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 30@ CHC2
Jun 18@ ATH2
Jun 23vs BAL8
Jun 29@ SEA3
Jul 5vs BOS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)18.8%3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.0%2.3
3. Kody Clemens (L)22.2%2.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.4%2.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)25.8%2.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)17.0%2.0
7. Alan Roden (L)23.0%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)27.7%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ BAL5
Jun 20@ TEX7
Jun 26vs LAD5
Jul 1@ CHC6
Jul 6vs AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)12.0%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)14.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.9%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.6%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.1%2.3
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.0%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.4%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)24.4%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.9% K / BF

vs LHB15.3%
vs RHB16.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 30@ NYM3
May 6vs MIN3
May 12@ CIN2
Jun 29@ BOS3
Jul 6vs HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Amed Rosario (R)26.2%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.2%3.0
3. Trent Grisham (L)19.8%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.6%3.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L)18.9%2.8
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.9%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.5%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)22.2%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB17.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs DET8
Jun 19@ HOU7
Jun 24@ CWS3
Jun 30vs TEX2
Jul 5vs CWS1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)15.3%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.7%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)13.1%3.0
4. Javier Sanoja (R)11.6%3.0
5. Kyle Stowers (L)28.6%2.8
6. Leo Jiménez (R)20.6%2.0
7. Esteury Ruiz (R)23.3%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)19.0%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.2 BF

Expected batters faced18.2
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 31vs DET3
Apr 5vs ATL2
Apr 11@ PHI6
Jun 30vs SF2
Jul 6@ SD6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.3%2.2
2. Tommy Edman (L)19.4%2.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.5%2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.8%2.0
5. Max Muncy (L)21.4%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.6%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)19.3%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)20.8%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%
vs RHB17.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.0 BF

Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 19vs NYM3
Jun 12@ SF5
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 24@ NYM5
Jul 5vs STL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.7%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.4%3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R)25.0%2.0
4. JJ Bleday (L)20.6%2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.0%2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.8%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)21.3%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 24vs WSH1
Apr 26vs WSH1
May 23@ SF1
Jun 14vs LAD0
Jun 18@ NYY2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)26.5%2.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.2%2.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.9%2.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)19.6%2.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)16.6%1.7
6. Joey Meneses (R)20.8%1.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%1.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)28.1%1.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)14.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryan Hudson's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.