Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. The lefty is going deep on .040 HR/PA against righties this year — and .044 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tyler Mahle has been homer-prone to righties lately — .048 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .083 in 12 career PA against Tyler Mahle, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (95) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (66) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .045 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (61) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: real bat at .043 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (61) vs RHP Didier Fuentes: real bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (58) vs RHP Jack Leiter: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (52) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (51) vs LHP Eric Lauer: real bat at .044 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .156 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .042 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.