Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is going deep on .089 HR/PA against righties this year — and .115 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Braxton Ashcraft has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Braxton Ashcraft too — .500 across 4 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: big-time bat at .062 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.069), due to bounce back.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (85) vs RHP Peter Lambert: elite bat at .070 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), due to bounce back.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (84) vs LHP Eric Lauer: big-time bat at .065 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.026).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (83) vs RHP Casey Mize: big-time bat at .061 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (75) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .064 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (73) vs LHP Robert Gasser: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .077 against lefties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.