Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?

Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Kevin Gausman. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (100), Shea Langeliers (100), Yordan Alvarez (91), Paul Goldschmidt (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Tuesday, June 30, 2026?

No — Juan Soto didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year. Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .072 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .081 against lefties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Every slugger on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ home run, against 21% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 21%

Top 10

2/1020%

season 22%

Full slate

41/27015%

season 11%

Top call Yordan Alvarez came through. Juan Soto didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–3

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–2

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup54 Final · 0–8

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–3

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup88 Final · 3–0

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–1

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup49 Final · 5–3

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup66 Final · 2–7

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup56 Final · 10–4

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup75 Final · 7–9

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup56 Final · 4–6

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup91 Final · 14–3

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup84 Final · 3–8

LAAaway

SEAhomeTop matchup54 Final · 2–8

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup75 Final · 9–3

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100

Not starting69 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 339 shownScore

41 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Luis Arraez2B
SF@AZ· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #265
2
Rafael Devers1B
SF@AZ· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #8
3
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSF· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #29
4
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #30
5
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@ATH· 4-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #53
6
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #108
7
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsSF· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #227
8
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #17
9
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #45
10
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #165
11
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.0 HR, #268
12
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIN· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.4 HR, #4
13
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #67
14
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CHC· 2-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #105
15
Manny Machado3B
SD@CHC· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #24
16
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #76
17
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #101
18
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #126
19
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsTB· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #38
20
Carter JensenC
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #11
21
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #23
22
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsCIN· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #26
23
Junior Caminero3B
TB@KC· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #28
24
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #56
25
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #106
26
Nelson VelázquezLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #19
27
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #255
28
Riley GreeneLF
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #35
29
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #12
30
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #52
31
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsDET· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #79
32
James OutmanCF
DET@NYY· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #196
33
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@BOS· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #181
34
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #95
35
Luis TorrensC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #233
36
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #173
37
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #31
38
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #128
39
Josh Jung3B
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #155
40
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BAL· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #40
41
Junior PerezCF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #175

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Juan Soto (NYM) is the top home runs matchup on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Shea Langeliers (ATH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Juan Soto

Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kevin Gausman. The lefty is going deep on .070 HR/PA against righties this year — and .063 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Kevin Gausman has been homer-prone to righties lately — .045 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .276 in 29 career PA against Kevin Gausman. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: elite bat at .076 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
Shea Langeliers (ATH) (100) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.023).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (91) vs RHP Joe Ryan: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (88) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.172), due to bounce back.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (87) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Hunter Goodman (COL) (84) vs RHP Eury Pérez: elite bat at .065 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111).
Rafael Devers (SF) (75) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: big-time bat at .052 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Platoon edges to target

Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .072 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .081 against lefties this year.

How it played out

2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?: Juan Soto (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Kevin Gausman. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Juan Soto (100), Kyle Schwarber (100), Shea Langeliers (100), Yordan Alvarez (91), Paul Goldschmidt (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Tuesday, June 30, 2026?: No — Juan Soto didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year. Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .072 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .081 against lefties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.