Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is going deep on .089 HR/PA against righties this year — and .115 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .024 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bubba Chandler too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: big-time bat at .062 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.049).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (83) vs RHP Joe Ryan: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (80) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.023).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (78) vs RHP Eury Pérez: big-time bat at .064 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (71) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.024).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (69) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.116), due to bounce back.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (67) vs RHP Erick Fedde: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .077 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.