Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is going deep on .047 HR/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (92) vs RHP Paul Skenes: elite bat at .076 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (78) vs RHP Seth Lugo: elite bat at .068 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (77) vs RHP Braydon Fisher: big-time bat at .061 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.154).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (70) vs RHP Taj Bradley: big-time bat at .051 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (69) vs RHP Max Meyer: elite bat at .065 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (69) vs RHP the starter: big-time bat at .055 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (69) vs RHP Troy Melton: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.