Who has the best home runs matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Kyle Schwarber (96), Juan Soto (87), Ben Rice (81), Junior Caminero (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Wednesday, July 1, 2026?

No — Shohei Ohtani didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Every slugger on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ home run, against 21% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 21%

Top 10

1/1010%

season 22%

Full slate

40/25216%

season 11%

Top call Junior Caminero came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–6

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–9

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup45 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup40 Final · 6–2

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–23

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup61 Final · 3–9

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup87 Final · 6–10

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–5

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup48 Final · 4–0

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup81 Final · 8–3

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup71 Final · 2–4

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup68 Final · 3–6

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup63 Final · 1–7

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–4

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup60

Not starting69 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 321 shownScore

41 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-1
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR
2
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #25
3
Victor BericotoLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #41
4
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #47
5
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #148
6
Heliot RamosLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #161
7
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #228
8
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.4 HR, #13
9
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #24
10
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #184
11
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #28
12
Josh BellDH
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #76
13
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #133
14
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.0 HR, #245
15
Junior Caminero3B
TB@KC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.4 HR, #5
16
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #113
17
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSTL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #165
18
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #38
19
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #100
20
Henry DavisC
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #168
21
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #190
22
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #35
23
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TOR· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #79
24
Sean KeysDH
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #145
25
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 3-for-5
3HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #83
26
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSD· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #81
27
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #14
28
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSD· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #33
29
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSD· 2-for-6
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #42
30
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #207
31
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsDET· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #56
32
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #153
33
James WoodRF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #39
34
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #174
35
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #224
36
David FryRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #111
37
Elias DíazC
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #166
38
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #205
39
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #57
40
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@BAL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #82
41
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.0 HR, #249

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top home runs matchup on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Juan Soto (NYM) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is going deep on .047 HR/PA against righties this year — and .097 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (96) vs RHP Paul Skenes: elite bat at .075 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Braydon Fisher: big-time bat at .061 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.154).
Ben Rice (NYY) (81) vs RHP Troy Melton: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
Junior Caminero (TB) (81) vs RHP Seth Lugo: elite bat at .068 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125), hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (71) vs RHP Taj Bradley: big-time bat at .054 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
Sal Stewart (CIN) (68) vs LHP Shane Drohan: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Bryce Harper (PHI) (68) vs RHP Paul Skenes: big-time bat at .060 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).

Platoon edges to target

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.

How it played out

1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Kyle Schwarber (96), Juan Soto (87), Ben Rice (81), Junior Caminero (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Wednesday, July 1, 2026?: No — Shohei Ohtani didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.