Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, May 11, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Young. The righty is going deep on .088 HR/PA against righties this year — and .149 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Brandon Young has been homer-prone to righties lately — .043 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Young too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (63) vs RHP Michael Soroka: real bat at .043 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.030), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (60) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) (60) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (57) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (54) vs RHP Brandon Young: real bat at .041 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037), due to bounce back.
- Christian Walker (HOU) (50) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .024 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.