Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top home runs spot: Matt Olson
Matt Olson (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trevor McDonald. The lefty is going deep on .064 HR/PA against righties this year — and .050 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Trevor McDonald has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Trevor McDonald. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Walker Buehler: elite bat at .067 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (99) vs RHP Reynaldo López: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (93) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: big-time bat at .060 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032), due to bounce back.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (92) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: big-time bat at .064 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.046).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (90) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (86) vs LHP Zach Thornton: elite bat at .067 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (86) vs RHP Reynaldo López: solid bat at .037 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Matt Olson finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.