Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Christian Scott. The lefty is going deep on .090 HR/PA against righties this year — and .115 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Christian Scott has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .214 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Christian Scott. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (100) vs LHP Reid Detmers: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: elite bat at .072 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: big-time bat at .065 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (71) vs LHP Foster Griffin: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (69) vs RHP Brandon Young: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (68) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .045 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.027).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (66) vs RHP Christian Scott: big-time bat at .056 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.214).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .080 against lefties this year.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .111 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.