Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. The lefty is going deep on .093 HR/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Cade Cavalli has been homer-prone to righties lately — .040 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Cade Cavalli, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Alec Burleson (STL) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.024), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Landen Roupp: big-time bat at .060 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043), due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.068), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (93) vs LHP Connelly Early: real bat at .050 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (92) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Troy Melton: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.121).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (79) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .071 against lefties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.