Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 19, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Paul Skenes⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.5%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 22.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 11.5% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 10.6% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.3% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.0% 3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R) 10.2% 3.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L) 8.3% 2.1
7. Gabriel Arias (R) 11.4% 2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L) 9.1% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 10.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -135 +100
DK DraftKings -134 +101
FAN Fanatics -135 -105
We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Paul Skenes's full player page → 2
Foster Griffin⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carlos Cortes (L) 10.9% 3.0
2. Jacob Wilson (R) 12.0% 3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 11.3% 3.0
4. Shea Langeliers (R) 13.9% 2.5
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 10.7% 2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 10.3% 2.0
7. Donovan Walton (L) 13.1% 2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 12.2% 2.0
9. Tommy White (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under DK DraftKings -132 -101
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Foster Griffin's full player page → 3
Eduardo Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 7.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.6 BF Expected batters faced 21.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 9.8% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 11.6% 3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 9.8% 3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 15.9% 2.6
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 10.4% 2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 11.8% 2.0
7. Nathan Church (L) 12.1% 2.0
8. José Fermín (R) 11.8% 2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R) 9.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -125 -105
DK DraftKings -136 +102
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page → 4
Grant Holmes⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.0%
vs RHB 10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.2 BF Expected batters faced 20.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 12.2% 3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 12.0% 3.0
3. Josh Jung (R) 10.7% 2.2
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 9.1% 2.0
5. Jake Burger (R) 10.8% 2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 13.5% 2.0
7. Evan Carter (L) 11.9% 2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L) 10.5% 2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R) 12.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -115 -118
FAN Fanatics -120 -120
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Grant Holmes's full player page → 5
Cam Schlittler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.6%
vs RHB 7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 11.8% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 11.9% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 13.6% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 13.1% 3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 12.5% 2.9
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 11.9% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L) 13.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cam Schlittler's full player page → 6
Shane McClanahan⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 12.1% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 14.3% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 15.9% 3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 14.0% 2.9
5. Romy Gonzalez (R) 12.0% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 10.2% 2.0
7. Andruw Monasterio (R) 14.7% 2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R) 10.5% 2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R) 12.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -140
BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +120 -160
FAN Fanatics +100 -140
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Shane McClanahan's full player page → 7
Robbie Ray⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.5%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 9.8% 3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R) 13.0% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 9.9% 3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R) 12.8% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 10.3% 3.0
6. Cal Raleigh (R) 9.1% 2.8
7. Cole Young (L) 9.7% 2.0
8. Luke Raley (L) 9.4% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 11.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under DK DraftKings +106 -141
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Robbie Ray's full player page → 8
Sonny Gray⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 11.5% 3.0
2. Jonny DeLuca (R) 11.8% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 12.7% 3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 10.0% 3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L) 12.1% 3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R) 11.2% 3.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 13.3% 2.5
8. Nick Fortes (R) 10.6% 2.0
9. Richie Palacios (L) 13.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +120 -165
BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +122 -162
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Sonny Gray's full player page → 9
Alan Rangel⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.5%
vs RHB 11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.2 BF Expected batters faced 19.2
From recent starts 5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Francisco Lindor (L) 12.9% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 14.4% 2.3
3. Bo Bichette (R) 11.0% 2.0
4. Francisco Alvarez (R) 10.4% 2.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 14.0% 2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R) 10.7% 2.0
7. Tyrone Taylor (R) 13.3% 2.0
8. A.J. Ewing (L) 13.0% 2.0
9. Eric Wagaman (R) 10.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -120 -110
BOV Bovada -125 -115
DK DraftKings -124 -107
FAN Fanatics -125 -115
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Alan Rangel's full player page → 10
Sean Burke⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 11.4% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 11.8% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 12.3% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 13.2% 3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 13.4% 3.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.9% 2.2
7. Alejandro Kirk (R) 8.5% 2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L) 9.4% 2.0
9. Jonatan Clase (L) 14.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +120 -165
BOV Bovada +115 -155
DK DraftKings +122 -162
FAN Fanatics +120 -170
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Sean Burke's full player page → 11
Shota Imanaga⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Austin Martin (R) 13.7% 3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R) 12.1% 3.0
3. Josh Bell (R) 12.2% 3.0
4. Victor Caratini (R) 9.7% 3.0
5. Brooks Lee (R) 8.5% 2.4
6. Kody Clemens (L) 12.1% 2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R) 12.2% 2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R) 11.2% 2.0
9. Trevor Larnach (L) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -155 +115
DK DraftKings -145 +109
FAN Fanatics -155 +110
We project 2.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Shota Imanaga's full player page → 12
Casey Mize⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.5%
vs RHB 11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.3 BF Expected batters faced 22.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 14.2% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 13.8% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 9.2% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 10.6% 3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L) 11.0% 2.3
6. Jo Adell (R) 9.4% 2.0
7. Vaughn Grissom (R) 10.8% 2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R) 10.3% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 8.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +110 -150
DK DraftKings -103 -129
FAN Fanatics +105 -150
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Casey Mize's full player page → 13
Logan Gilbert⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Luis Arraez (L) 10.9% 3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L) 11.3% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 11.0% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 15.0% 3.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R) 11.5% 3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 12.0% 3.0
7. Willy Adames (R) 12.2% 2.2
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 10.8% 2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R) 8.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -145 +105
DK DraftKings -152 +115
FAN Fanatics -150 +105
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Logan Gilbert's full player page → 14
Nolan McLean⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 13.8% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 12.2% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 14.5% 3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R) 10.1% 3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R) 10.8% 3.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L) 12.9% 3.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. Derek Hill (R) 14.7% 2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L) 12.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -110 -125
BOV Bovada -120 -120
DK DraftKings -105 -126
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Nolan McLean's full player page → 15
Joey Cantillo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (R) 13.8% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 14.2% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R) 12.2% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 15.5% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 13.5% 3.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 12.0% 2.1
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 13.5% 2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 11.8% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 13.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under DK DraftKings -172 +129
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Joey Cantillo's full player page → 16
Ryan Johnson⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 15.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 17.9 BF Expected batters faced 17.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Matt Vierling (R) 9.4% 2.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L) 14.2% 2.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R) 12.0% 2.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 10.6% 2.0
5. Riley Greene (L) 13.5% 2.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R) 10.6% 2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 9.2% 2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R) 9.8% 2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L) 8.7% 1.9
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -140 +100
DK DraftKings -150 +113
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Ryan Johnson's full player page → 17
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.1%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 14.9% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 15.3% 3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L) 12.2% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 13.7% 3.0
6. Max Schuemann (R) 14.4% 3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L) 11.9% 2.8
8. Austin Wells (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. José Caballero (R) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page → 18
Noah Cameron⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.5%
vs RHB 11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 11.2% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 9.4% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 10.1% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 12.3% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 7.5% 3.0
6. Ty France (R) 11.9% 2.8
7. Jake Cronenworth (L) 10.9% 2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R) 9.1% 2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R) 10.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -145 +105
BOV Bovada -150 +110
FAN Fanatics -150 +105
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Noah Cameron's full player page → 19
Eury Pérez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.1% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 16.8% 3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L) 14.6% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 10.8% 2.5
5. Garrett Mitchell (L) 13.8% 2.0
6. Luis Lara (L) 9.3% 2.0
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. Braden Shewmake (L) 15.0% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -145
DK DraftKings +121 -161
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Eury Pérez's full player page → 20
Hunter Brown⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.5%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Adley Rutschman (L) 10.0% 3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L) 14.2% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 11.5% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 12.9% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 12.2% 2.2
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 12.1% 2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L) 11.8% 2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 11.1% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +120 -160
DK DraftKings +104 -138
FAN Fanatics +115 -165
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Hunter Brown's full player page → 21
Germán Márquez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.3%
vs RHB 11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.1 BF Expected batters faced 21.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 11.3% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 12.3% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 11.3% 2.1
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L) 10.9% 2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 8.8% 2.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 13.1% 2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L) 11.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +125 -175
BOV Bovada +120 -160
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Germán Márquez's full player page → 22
Brandon Young⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jeremy Peña (R) 15.2% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 14.5% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 11.4% 3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R) 13.7% 3.0
5. Christian Walker (R) 11.5% 3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R) 12.0% 3.0
7. Cam Smith (R) 11.2% 2.5
8. Zach Dezenzo (R) 13.8% 2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L) 12.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -145
BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +109 -145
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Brandon Young's full player page → 23
Ryan Feltner⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.1%
vs RHB 12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 14.1% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 12.0% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 11.8% 3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R) 13.5% 3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 11.4% 2.5
6. Noelvi Marte (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Dane Myers (R) 10.9% 2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R) 12.2% 2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +115 -160
DK DraftKings +112 -149
FAN Fanatics +115 -165
We project 2.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Ryan Feltner's full player page → 24
Trey Yesavage⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 15.1% 3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L) 15.8% 3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 14.8% 3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 12.4% 3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L) 13.4% 2.9
6. Kyle Teel (L) 13.2% 2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L) 14.1% 2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 13.3% 2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R) 12.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -140
BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +100 -133
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Trey Yesavage's full player page → 25
Jacob Lopez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.4%
vs RHB 14.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.1 BF Expected batters faced 19.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 13.8% 3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R) 14.0% 2.1
3. Andrés Chaparro (R) 13.6% 2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 10.0% 2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 14.2% 2.0
6. Harry Ford (R) 14.6% 2.0
7. Daylen Lile (L) 11.2% 2.0
8. Jacob Young (R) 12.1% 2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R) 13.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -140 +100
DK DraftKings -121 -109
FAN Fanatics -140 +100
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Jacob Lopez's full player page → 26
Andre Pallante⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.6%
vs RHB 9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 10.7% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 14.3% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 13.9% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 13.9% 3.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 11.3% 3.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R) 12.4% 2.5
7. Tim Tawa (R) 10.7% 2.0
8. James McCann (R) 11.1% 2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R) 10.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +100 -135
DK DraftKings -101 -131
FAN Fanatics -105 -135
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Andre Pallante's full player page → 27
Robert Gasser⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.8%
vs RHB 14.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Otto Lopez (R) 10.6% 3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R) 13.2% 3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L) 8.8% 3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R) 10.0% 2.7
6. Liam Hicks (L) 10.5% 2.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. Esteury Ruiz (R) 14.1% 2.0
9. Joe Mack (L) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -140 +105
DK DraftKings -140 +106
FAN Fanatics -140 +100
We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Robert Gasser's full player page → 28
Nathan Eovaldi⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.4%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.1 BF Expected batters faced 25.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 14.0% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 15.3% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 15.6% 3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L) 13.7% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 11.0% 3.0
6. Eli White (R) 13.9% 3.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 12.0% 3.0
8. Joey Bart (R) 12.0% 2.1
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -120 -110
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Nathan Eovaldi's full player page → 29
Hunter Greene⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.7%
vs RHB 11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 13.2% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 12.4% 3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L) 16.6% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 11.9% 3.0
5. Willi Castro (L) 11.9% 2.8
6. Troy Johnston (L) 11.1% 2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L) 12.4% 2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L) 12.2% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -110 -120
DK DraftKings -123 -108
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Hunter Greene's full player page → 30
Zebby Matthews⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.0%
vs RHB 13.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.6 BF Expected batters faced 24.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 15.2% 3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R) 12.8% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 11.2% 3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R) 10.5% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 12.6% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 10.2% 3.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (L) 9.5% 2.6
8. Dansby Swanson (R) 13.6% 2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R) 14.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -135 +100
DK DraftKings -118 -112
We project 3.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Zebby Matthews's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026 Paul Skenes (PIT) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, July 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER, with Foster Griffin (WSH) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Paul Skenes Paul Skenes (PIT) tops the Sunday, July 19, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Foster Griffin (WSH) (99) — about 2.0 ER vs ATH. Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) (98) — about 2.0 ER vs STL. Grant Holmes (ATL) (95) — about 2.0 ER vs TEX. Cam Schlittler (NYY) (91) — about 2.1 ER vs LAD. Shane McClanahan (TB) (83) — about 2.2 ER vs BOS. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, July 19, 2026)? Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Sunday, July 19, 2026: Paul Skenes (~1.9 ER), Foster Griffin (~2.0 ER), Eduardo Rodriguez (~2.0 ER), Grant Holmes (~2.0 ER), Cam Schlittler (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
