Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 93, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. The lefty is driving in runs at .142 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .227 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties lately — .295 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Freddy Peralta too — .333 across 15 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) (81) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.227), due to bounce back.
- Mark Vientos (NYM) (79) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: an elite bat at .161 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (76) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (76) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (74) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .140 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (74) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .128 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- Luke Raley (SEA) (73) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.115).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Mark Vientos (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .171 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Luke Raley (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays