Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top rbis spot: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is driving in runs at .163 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .386 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 20% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .167 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Merrill Kelly too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (100) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an elite bat at .176 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an elite bat at .163 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), hot bat.
- Ryan Kreidler (MIN) (99) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an elite bat at .207 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Kahlil Watson (CLE) (93) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an elite bat at .179 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.310), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (89) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an elite bat at .167 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086), due to bounce back.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (85) vs RHP Mitch Keller: an elite bat at .165 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs LHP Cionel Pérez: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .173 against lefties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
- Kahlil Watson (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Junior Caminero finished with 2 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays