Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top rbis spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. The lefty is driving in runs at .167 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .222 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Tyler Mahle has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Tyler Mahle, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Shaw (CHC) (100) vs LHP Sean Manaea: an elite bat at .163 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: an elite bat at .163 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.146), hitter's park.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (99) vs LHP Gage Jump: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.429), due to bounce back.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (99) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (96) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: an elite bat at .176 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (96) vs RHP Joe Ryan: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (95) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.360).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Matt Shaw (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .197 against lefties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .186 against lefties this year.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .194 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays