Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is driving in runs at .195 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .244 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Owen Caissie (MIA) (100) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an elite bat at .190 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (99) vs LHP Zach Thornton: an elite bat at .165 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (97) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.244), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (96) vs RHP Colin Rea: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.156).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (93) vs RHP Max Meyer: an elite bat at .181 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067), hot bat.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (89) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
- Owen Caissie (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays