MatchWiz Scores

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 19, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

12:15 PM ETCWSCWSawayTORTORhomeTop matchup5412:35 PM ETLADLADawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup801:35 PM ETTBTBawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup321:35 PM ETNYMNYMawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup851:35 PM ETTEXTEXawayATLATLhomeTop matchup851:40 PM ETPITPITawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup1002:10 PM ETBALBALawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup462:10 PM ETSDSDawayKCKChomeTop matchup442:10 PM ETMIAMIAawayMILMILhomeTop matchup722:20 PM ETMINMINawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup473:10 PM ETCINCINawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup1004:05 PM ETWSHWSHawayATHATHhomeTop matchup604:07 PM ETDETDETawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup514:10 PM ETSFSFawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup634:10 PM ETSTLSTLawayAZAZhomeTop matchup117:20 PM ETLADLADawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup0
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB28.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ COL8
Jun 26vs CIN7
Jul 1@ PHI5
Jul 7vs ATL4
Jul 12vs MIL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)22.1%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.2%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.1%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.5%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.2%3.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)30.0%2.1
7. Gabriel Arias (R)31.9%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.8%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+117-152
BRBetRivers+110-148
DKDraftKings+123-158
FANFanatics+120-160

We project 6.2 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.4% K / BF

vs LHB31.8%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs BAL7
Jul 10vs CHC12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.0%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)23.4%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)19.6%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)16.2%3.0
5. Willi Castro (L)24.1%2.9
6. Troy Johnston (L)19.5%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)24.8%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)20.7%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+108-138
FDFanDuel+124-160

We project 6.8 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Greene's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB27.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ BOS6
Jun 21vs SD9
Jun 26@ TOR9
Jul 2vs DET9
Jul 9vs LAA10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)19.1%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.5%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.8%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)21.2%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.5%3.0
6. Eli White (R)21.4%3.0
7. Austin Riley (R)26.4%2.4
8. Joey Bart (R)22.1%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-141+109
BRBetRivers-132+100
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-149+116
FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nathan Eovaldi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ CIN9
Jun 24vs CHC9
Jun 30@ TOR7
Jul 5@ ATL5
Jul 10vs BOS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)21.3%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.6%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)18.9%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)17.8%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.6%3.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)23.0%2.7
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.1%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)29.5%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+107-139
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+112-143
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB27.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ CWS7
Jun 20vs BAL6
Jun 27@ SD4
Jul 4vs SD10
Jul 11vs AZ6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)19.3%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.3%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.0%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.6%3.0
6. Max Schuemann (R)23.0%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)29.3%2.3
8. Austin Wells (L)25.5%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.8% K / BF

vs LHB29.3%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs CIN13
Jun 25@ BOS9
Jun 30vs DET5
Jul 6@ TB8
Jul 11@ WSH6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)19.1%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)15.1%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)22.1%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.1%2.6
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.1%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)26.1%2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB24.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 27@ TOR9
Jun 24vs TEX1
Jun 30@ COL8
Jul 5@ ATH8
Jul 11vs CLE6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)28.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)24.0%3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L)27.8%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)16.2%2.9
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.8%2.0
6. Luis Lara (L)20.3%2.0
7. Cooper Pratt (R)18.6%2.0
8. Braden Shewmake (L)20.0%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers+105-139
DKDraftKings-101-127

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB26.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ HOU9
Jun 26vs SEA9
Jul 1vs TEX4
Jul 7@ MIN7
Jul 12@ MIA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (R)19.3%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)29.6%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)21.4%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)23.0%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.8%3.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.8%2.1
7. Tyler Callihan (L)19.8%2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)21.3%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-156+121
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-162+127
FDFanDuel-146+114

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.6%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs BAL10
Jun 21vs BOS8
Jun 27@ CLE7
Jul 4vs TOR7
Jul 11@ TB5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)7.3%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.9%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)24.9%3.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)25.9%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.1%2.8
7. Willy Adames (R)25.9%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.1%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BRBetRivers-114-117
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-117-109
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-111-115

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs KC6
Jun 22vs PHI9
Jun 27@ BAL9
Jul 3vs PIT2
Jul 8vs HOU9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)22.8%3.0
2. Jacob Wilson (R)15.5%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.1%3.0
4. Shea Langeliers (R)21.2%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)19.7%2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)26.8%2.0
7. Donovan Walton (L)20.2%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)27.3%2.0
9. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BRBetRivers+100-134
DKDraftKings+104-132
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+114-146

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB24.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs LAD6
Jun 23vs CLE6
Jun 29@ BAL8
Jul 4@ CLE11
Jul 10vs ATH9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.5%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.1%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.0%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.8%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.0%3.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.4%2.1
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)14.5%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.4%2.0
9. Jonatan Clase (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-108-120
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-107-119
FDFanDuel-106-120

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ HOU3
Jun 23vs NYY6
Jun 29@ NYY10
Jul 5@ TEX4
Jul 11vs PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)24.6%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.6%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)27.7%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)24.3%2.5
6. Jo Adell (R)22.9%2.0
7. Vaughn Grissom (R)18.9%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)24.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-121-105
FDFanDuel-138+108

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.4%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs COL3
Jun 24@ NYM4
Jun 29vs SD4
Jul 4vs STL8
Jul 10@ CIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)19.4%3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R)17.4%3.0
3. Josh Bell (R)20.1%3.0
4. Victor Caratini (R)25.0%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (R)22.9%2.6
6. Kody Clemens (L)24.1%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)20.2%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)19.9%2.0
9. Trevor Larnach (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+102-132
BRBetRivers-105-127
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+106-135
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel+100-128

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs DET7
Jun 22@ TOR4
Jun 28@ DET4
Jul 4vs TB3
Jul 10@ TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Adley Rutschman (L)17.5%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.3%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)22.4%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.1%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)23.6%2.5
6. Dylan Beavers (L)23.8%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)26.1%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)21.9%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-152+117
BOVBovada-160+120
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 5.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18vs STL6
Jun 24@ TB5
Jun 30vs TB0
Jul 6vs PHI7
Jul 11@ BAL9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.4%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)22.8%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.4%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)21.0%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)24.7%3.0
6. Ty France (R)22.3%2.6
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.0%2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R)18.4%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-116-111
BRBetRivers-125-106
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-127+100
FDFanDuel-115-111

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ BOS6
Jun 24vs HOU5
Jun 29vs NYM3
Jul 5@ SEA7
Jul 11@ SD1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)18.4%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.4%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.3%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)29.2%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)19.4%2.9
6. Kyle Teel (L)28.7%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)18.5%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)17.9%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-141+110
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB19.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ TEX4
Jun 22vs LAD5
Jun 29@ HOU7
Jul 4@ NYY5
Jul 10vs LAA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.5%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)23.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)19.3%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)26.6%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.6%3.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)18.8%2.1
8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.8%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-120-108
BRBetRivers-107-125
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-122-105
FDFanDuel-118-108

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.8%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ SEA2
Jun 21@ LAD5
Jun 27vs WSH8
Jul 4@ CIN5
Jul 10vs KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.1%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.7%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)20.2%3.0
5. Christian Walker (R)24.6%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)16.4%3.0
7. Cam Smith (R)22.1%2.1
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)29.3%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-120-108
BRBetRivers-108-122
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-118-108
FDFanDuel-118-108

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Young's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB20.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs WSH3
Jun 23vs ATH6
Jun 28vs ATL2
Jul 4@ COL4
Jul 10vs COL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.5%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.8%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.2%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.2%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)20.1%3.0
6. Cal Raleigh (R)27.4%2.6
7. Cole Young (L)22.9%2.0
8. Luke Raley (L)22.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BRBetRivers+104-137
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+114-145
FDFanDuel+104-132

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18vs TOR4
Jun 23@ COL11
Jun 28vs NYY9
Jul 4@ LAA7
Jul 10@ NYM3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.9%3.0
2. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)22.7%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)20.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.9%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)20.1%3.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.6%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)18.4%2.0
9. Richie Palacios (L)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-147+113
BRBetRivers-141+106
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-151+118
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2vs PIT4
Jul 8@ CIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.6%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)17.1%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)18.1%2.7
4. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.4%2.0
5. Carson Benge (L)19.0%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)21.1%2.0
7. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.4%2.0
8. A.J. Ewing (L)25.7%2.0
9. Eric Wagaman (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers-139+105
BOVBovada-160+120
FANFanatics-165+125
FDFanDuel-154+120

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Alan Rangel's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ LAA7
Jun 17@ LAD3
Jun 23vs KC4
Jul 1@ KC4
Jul 8vs NYY5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)18.9%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.3%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.2%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)18.7%3.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)24.9%2.3
6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.4%2.0
7. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.4%2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R)25.1%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
BOLBetOnline-161+123
BRBetRivers-162+120
BOVBovada-160+120
FDFanDuel-154+120

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ CWS2
Jun 16vs SF2
Jun 22@ SD4
Jul 3vs NYM2
Jul 8@ PIT5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)20.0%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.9%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)21.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.5%2.1
5. Jake Burger (R)25.6%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.2%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)22.1%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)16.1%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-114-114
BRBetRivers-104-129
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-105-121
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-108-118

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB18.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs CLE5
Jun 21@ ATL7
Jun 29vs CIN5
Jul 7@ STL4
Jul 12@ PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)18.8%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)23.4%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)26.0%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)19.8%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)17.6%2.8
6. Liam Hicks (L)18.6%2.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)21.5%2.0
8. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.3%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BRBetRivers-137+104
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-138+108
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-132+104

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ CHC7
Jun 22vs BOS2
Jun 28@ MIN0
Jul 3vs SF9
Jul 9@ SF3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.5%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)19.5%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.8%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)23.1%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.6%2.7
6. Noelvi Marte (R)21.7%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)24.2%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)18.0%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-175
BOLBetOnline+128-167
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+131-168
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+124-158

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Feltner's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 8@ BAL5
May 14vs STL2
May 19@ LAA2
May 31vs NYY3
Jul 10@ CWS1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)28.2%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)21.5%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)23.8%2.3
4. CJ Abrams (L)23.9%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)23.5%2.0
6. Harry Ford (R)23.0%2.0
7. Daylen Lile (L)22.1%2.0
8. Jacob Young (R)19.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-145+112
BRBetRivers-148+112
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-138+108
FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs SD6
Jun 22vs AZ2
Jun 27vs MIA4
Jul 3@ CHC2
Jul 9vs MIL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)18.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.2%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.1%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.7%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)24.0%3.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.4%2.4
7. Tim Tawa (R)22.8%2.0
8. James McCann (R)26.1%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)31.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+116-155
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+131-168
FDFanDuel+124-158

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 18@ LAA5
Apr 25@ AZ2
May 1vs CWS2
Jul 7vs AZ4
Jul 12vs TOR4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)28.4%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.8%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)24.1%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)23.4%2.7
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.5%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)22.8%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)16.2%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)16.5%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-175
BOLBetOnline+128-167
BRBetRivers+118-157
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+120-154
FANFanatics+125-165
FDFanDuel+124-160

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ ATH2
Jun 23vs BAL8
Jun 29@ SEA3
Jul 5vs BOS6
Jul 11@ MIN1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)21.0%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.0%2.5
3. Dillon Dingler (R)20.9%2.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.8%2.0
5. Riley Greene (L)25.0%2.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R)23.6%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.3%2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R)21.2%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BRBetRivers-124-108
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-105-122
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-118-108

We project 3.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB18.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17vs LAA5
Jun 23@ STL5
Jun 29vs SF1
Jul 5vs MIL3
Jul 10@ LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.4%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)16.8%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)18.5%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)20.9%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.7%2.1
6. Masyn Winn (R)21.1%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)21.9%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)16.2%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-162+120
DKDraftKings-165+129
FANFanatics-160+120
FDFanDuel-158+124

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays