Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top walks spot: Iván Herrera
Iván Herrera (STL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. The righty is working counts at .202 BB/PA against lefties this year — and .263 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 15% of his trips. And Eduardo Rodriguez has been handing out free passes to lefties lately — .189 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Eduardo Rodriguez. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (100) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an elite bat at .164 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.097), hot bat.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (96) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an elite bat at .158 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (94) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .105 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (90) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.130), due to bounce back.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (87) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .114 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) (83) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: an excellent bat at .130 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.130), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Iván Herrera (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .202 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% walk park). Top bat there: Willson Contreras (BOS) at 61.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Iván Herrera finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays