Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top walks spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. The lefty is working counts at .178 BB/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Dylan Cease has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .167 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .087 in 23 career PA against Dylan Cease, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (100) vs RHP Andre Pallante: an elite bat at .158 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (100) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: an excellent bat at .128 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.139).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an elite bat at .152 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.118), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (96) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an elite bat at .158 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.035).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (93) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an excellent bat at .128 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143), hot bat.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (76) vs RHP Brandon Woodruff: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) (75) vs RHP Brandon Woodruff: an excellent bat at .130 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .224 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% walk park). Top bat there: Mickey Gasper (BOS) at 68.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 2 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays