MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zach Agnos. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at — fantasy/PA against righties this year, a solid bat worth about 1.63 fantasy points a trip. And Zach Agnos has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Zach Agnos, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP Luis Severino: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Alika Williams (ATH) (91) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (90) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (87) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) (87) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Zach Agnos has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has been giving up points to lefties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
- RHP Luis Severino has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Mike Trout (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
- RHP José Soriano has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Alika Williams (ATH), Shea Langeliers (ATH), and Nick Kurtz (ATH).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 8 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.