MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.134 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.625 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.06 fantasy points a trip. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — 2.000 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (100) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at 2.145 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.714), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at 2.139 into an arm tough on the same side (1.167).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (95) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at 2.104 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.897).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (95) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at 2.161 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.255).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at 2.215 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.500).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at 1.982 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.870).
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (92) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at 1.651 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.364).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Zack Littell has been getting lit up by righties — 2.068 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- RHP Aaron Civale has been getting lit up by righties — 2.041 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Denzer Guzman (LAA).
- RHP Emmet Sheehan has been getting lit up by righties — 1.994 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Samad Taylor (SD).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — 1.980 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Burger (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.134 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.498 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.187 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.042 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.184 against lefties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 2 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays