MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Christian Scott. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.422 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.276 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat worth about 2.20 fantasy points a trip. And Christian Scott has been getting lit up by righties lately — 4.000 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Christian Scott. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at 2.167 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.235).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at 1.802 into an arm tough on the same side (.889).
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (96) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a solid bat at 1.738 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (3.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (96) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at 2.043 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (4.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (94) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a solid bat at 1.815 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.909).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (94) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a solid bat at 1.751 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.703).
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (90) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at 1.628 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.640).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting lit up by righties — 2.067 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been getting lit up by righties — 1.916 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — 1.859 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
- RHP Cal Quantrill has been vulnerable to righties — 1.834 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Daulton Varsho (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.422 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.148 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.704 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.587 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.144 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 19 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays