MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trevor McDonald. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.101 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 2.000 over the last two weeks, a solid bat worth about 1.82 fantasy points a trip. And Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties lately — 3.000 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Trevor McDonald. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (99) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at 2.148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.200).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (97) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at 2.192 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.903), due to bounce back.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (96) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at 2.068 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.517), due to bounce back.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (94) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at 1.891 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.756), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (94) vs LHP Zach Thornton: an excellent bat at 2.086 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (91) vs RHP Max Meyer: an excellent bat at 2.270 into an arm giving up points to the same side (1.622), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (91) vs RHP Walker Buehler: an excellent bat at 2.193 into an arm tough on the same side (.571).
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — 2.023 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties — 1.963 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Taj Bradley has been getting lit up by righties — 1.917 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: TJ Rumfield (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Jake McCarthy (COL).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting lit up by righties — 1.901 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.101 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.318 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.089 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.053 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.281 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Michael Harris II finished with 3 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays