MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Esteury Ruiz
Esteury Ruiz (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. The righty is piling up fantasy points at 2.400 fantasy/PA against lefties this year — and 3.273 over the last two weeks, a strong bat worth about 1.94 fantasy points a trip. And Sean Sullivan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Sullivan. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Griffin Canning: an excellent bat at 2.156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.588), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a solid bat at 1.827 into an arm tough on the same side (.875).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a solid bat at 1.849 into an arm tough on the same side (1.194), hitter's park.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (99) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at 1.932 into an arm tough on the same side (1.128).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs LHP Gage Jump: a league-average bat at 1.599 into an arm tough on the same side (1.167).
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (93) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at 1.994 into an arm tough on the same side (1.194), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (92) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a solid bat at 1.678 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Griffin Canning has been getting lit up by righties — 2.009 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting lit up by righties — 1.906 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — 1.846 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: George Springer (TOR), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — 1.764 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.400 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.029 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.866 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.538 against lefties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.000 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Esteury Ruiz (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Esteury Ruiz finished with 0 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays