MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at 2.464 fantasy/PA against righties this year — and 3.828 over the last two weeks, an elite bat worth about 2.32 fantasy points a trip. And Braxton Ashcraft has been tough on righties lately — .935 fantasy points per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Braxton Ashcraft too — 1.000 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (99) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at 1.981 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.828), due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (98) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at 2.074 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (98) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at 1.961 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.082).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (94) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at 1.975 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (1.815), hot bat.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (94) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at 1.974 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.082).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (93) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.746 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (91) vs RHP Casey Mize: an excellent bat at 2.145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.091), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting lit up by righties — 1.906 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Konnor Griffin (PIT).
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — 1.860 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Julio Rodríguez (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Randy Arozarena (SEA).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — 1.846 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: George Springer (TOR), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — 1.764 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.464 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.346 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, 2.275 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, 2.246 against lefties this year.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, 1.816 against righties this year.
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 93.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.