Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, April 19, 2026
Top hits spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The lefty is hitting .400 H/PA against lefties this year — and .385 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .500 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Matthew Liberatore, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Alec Burleson (STL) (87) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .265 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417), hot bat.
- Will Smith (LAD) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .266 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (83) vs RHP Mitch Keller: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (81) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (79) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .232 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.455), hitter's park.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (77) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a strong bat at .268 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hot bat.
- Ramón Laureano (SD) (77) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: a strong bat at .253 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Mike Burrows has been getting tattooed by righties — .302 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Carlos Correa (HOU), and Jose Altuve (HOU).
- LHP Trevor Rogers has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Angel Martínez (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Daniel Schneemann (CLE).
- LHP Garrett Crochet has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Kerry Carpenter (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .274 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .235 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Will Smith (LAD) at 86.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Alec Burleson (STL), Will Smith (LAD), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Trea Turner (PHI), and Ramón Laureano (SD). Cold but due to bounce back: Edouard Julien (COL), José Ramírez (CLE), Tommy Pham (NYM), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.