Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Otto Lopez (100), Luis Arraez (100), Nathan Lukes (89), Shohei Ohtani (88), Chase DeLauter (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .427 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .308 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA). RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP J.T. Ginn has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Tommy Edman (LAD). RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Daulton Varsho (TOR).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 65%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 67%

Full slate

156/25262%

season 57%

Top call Otto Lopez came through. Luis Arraez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–6

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–9

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup87 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–2

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–23

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup86 Final · 3–9

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup89 Final · 6–10

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–5

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup58 Final · 4–0

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup85 Final · 8–3

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup60 Final · 2–4

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–6

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–7

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup88 Final · 6–4

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting69 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 321 shownScore

164 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCIN· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
2
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T2
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T2
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@HOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #33
T2
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T2
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T2
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@PHI· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T2
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@CLE· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T2
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T2
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T2
Taylor WallsSS
TB@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T2
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
13
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T13
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T13
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T13
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T13
Dillon DinglerC
DET@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T13
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T13
James WoodRF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T13
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T13
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #36
T13
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #37
T13
Liam HicksC
MIA@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T13
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T13
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T13
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T13
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T13
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T13
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T13
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T13
Ty France1B
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T13
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T13
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T13
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #92
T13
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T13
Heliot RamosLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T13
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T13
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSD· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T13
Victor BericotoLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T13
Jake MangumCF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T13
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T13
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T13
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T13
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T13
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T13
Drew CavanaughC
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T13
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T13
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T13
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYM· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T13
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T13
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T13
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T13
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsDET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T13
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T13
Connor WongC
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T13
Elias DíazC
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T13
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T13
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T13
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
60
Otto LopezSS
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.4 H, #1
T60
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T60
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T60
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T60
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T60
Junior Caminero3B
TB@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T60
Taylor WardDH
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T60
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T60
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T60
Rafael Devers1B
SF@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T60
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #28
T60
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T60
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #31
T60
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T60
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T60
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T60
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T60
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T60
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T60
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T60
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T60
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T60
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T60
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T60
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T60
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T60
William ContrerasC
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T60
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T60
Max Muncy3B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T60
Andy PagesCF
LAD@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T60
Colt Keith3B
DET@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T60
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T60
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #86
T60
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #87
T60
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #88
T60
Iván HerreraDH
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T60
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #90
T60
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #94
T60
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T60
Manny Machado3B
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T60
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T60
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T60
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T60
Daylen LileLF
WSH@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T60
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T60
Romy GonzalezDH
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T60
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T60
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T60
Starling MarteRF
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T60
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T60
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T60
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T60
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T60
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T60
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T60
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T60
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T60
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T60
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T60
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T60
Josh BellDH
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T60
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T60
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T60
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T60
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T60
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T60
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T60
David FryRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T60
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T60
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T60
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T60
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T60
Sean KeysDH
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T60
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T60
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T60
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T60
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T60
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T60
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T60
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T60
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T60
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T60
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T60
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T60
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T60
Christian Koss3B
SF@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T60
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T60
Michael Massey2B
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T60
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #235
T60
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T60
Drew MillasC
WSH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T60
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T60
Henry DavisC
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T60
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T60
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T60
Brett Baty3B
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T60
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T60
Samad TaylorLF
SD@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T60
Miguel AndujarDH
SD@CHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T60
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T60
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHCvsSD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T60
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T60
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T60
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
T60
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Otto Lopez (MIA) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, July 1, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Nathan Lukes (TOR) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is hitting .427 H/PA against lefties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .309 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Kyle Freeland, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an elite bat at .303 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (89) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385), due to bounce back.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hot bat.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) (87) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (86) vs RHP Colin Rea: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hot bat.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (85) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (81) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .265 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA).
RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
RHP J.T. Ginn has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Tommy Edman (LAD).
RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Daulton Varsho (TOR).

Platoon edges to target

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .427 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .308 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Luis Arraez (SF), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Sam Antonacci (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), Casey Schmitt (SF), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).

How it played out

4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Otto Lopez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, July 1, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, July 1, 2026: Otto Lopez (100), Luis Arraez (100), Nathan Lukes (89), Shohei Ohtani (88), Chase DeLauter (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, July 1, 2026?: Yes — Otto Lopez got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .427 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .308 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA). RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP J.T. Ginn has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Tommy Edman (LAD). RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Daulton Varsho (TOR).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Luis Arraez (SF), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Sam Antonacci (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), Casey Schmitt (SF), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.