Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is hitting .301 H/PA against righties this year — and .355 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 21 career PA against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (95) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .297 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (91) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.326), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (88) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (87) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385), due to bounce back.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (86) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .241 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.309), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (83) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235), hot bat.
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) (82) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: a strong bat at .265 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.282), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Casey Schmitt (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP J.T. Ginn has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Sean Keys (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .317 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .266 against lefties this year.
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .375 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Xavier Edwards (MIA) at 86.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Luis Arraez (SF), Yandy Díaz (TB), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Carter Jensen (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Casey Schmitt (SF), Michael Harris II (ATL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.