Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 29, 2026)?

Denzer Guzman (LAA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 29, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, June 29, 2026: Denzer Guzman (100), Otto Lopez (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (92), Zach Neto (91), Esteury Ruiz (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 29, 2026?

Yes — Denzer Guzman got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .418 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year. Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .222 against lefties this year. Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .292 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Denzer Guzman (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Brandon Lowe (PIT). RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Anthony Volpe (NYY). RHP Griffin Canning has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 29, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 29, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 65%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 68%

Full slate

156/23467%

season 57%

Top call Denzer Guzman came through. Esteury Ruiz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 8–2

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup74 Final · 11–7

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup83 Final · 7–3

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–2

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup61 Final · 3–6

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup62 Final · 6–3

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–5

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–3

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup92 Final · 5–4

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup68 Final · 10–7

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–4

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup89 Final · 2–6

LAAaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup80

Not starting61 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 295 shownScore

161 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T1
Miguel AndujarDH
SD@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T1
Cole Young2B
SEAvsLAA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #144
T1
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATHvsLAD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
5
Otto LopezSS
MIA@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T5
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T5
Zach NetoSS
LAA@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T5
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #7
T5
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T5
Konnor GriffinSS
PIT@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T5
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T5
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T5
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T5
Luis Arraez2B
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T5
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T5
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T5
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T5
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T5
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T5
Max Muncy3B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T5
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T5
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T5
Andy PagesCF
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T5
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T5
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T5
Ty France1B
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T5
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T5
Josh Jung3B
TEX@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T5
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #92
T5
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T5
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #95
T5
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T5
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T5
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T5
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsTEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T5
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T5
Josh LoweLF
LAA@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T5
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T5
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T5
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsMIA· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T5
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T5
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T5
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T5
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T5
Victor BericotoLF
SF@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T5
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T5
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T5
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T5
Dalton RushingC
LAD@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T5
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T5
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T5
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T5
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T5
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSF· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T5
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T5
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T5
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T5
Evan CarterCF
TEX@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #234
T5
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@COL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
60
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T60
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T60
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #9
T60
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T60
Samad TaylorLF
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T60
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T60
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T60
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T60
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T60
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #26
T60
Jo AdellRF
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T60
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T60
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #30
T60
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T60
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T60
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T60
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T60
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T60
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T60
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T60
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T60
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T60
Heliot RamosLF
SF@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T60
Dillon DinglerC
DET@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T60
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T60
George SpringerDH
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T60
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T60
Matt VierlingCF
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T60
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T60
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T60
James WoodRF
WSH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T60
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T60
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T60
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T60
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T60
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T60
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T60
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T60
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #96
T60
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T60
Juan SotoLF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T60
Jake MangumCF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T60
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T60
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T60
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T60
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T60
Kyle TeelC
CWS@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T60
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T60
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T60
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T60
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T60
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T60
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T60
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T60
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T60
Rafael Devers1B
SF@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T60
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T60
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T60
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T60
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T60
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T60
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #151
T60
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T60
Luis Urías2B
TORvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T60
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T60
Jake Burger1B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T60
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T60
Josh BellDH
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T60
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T60
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T60
Cam CauleyCF
TEX@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T60
Freddy FerminC
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T60
Jared Young1B
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T60
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T60
Dane MyersCF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T60
James OutmanCF
DET@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T60
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T60
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T60
David FryRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T60
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T60
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T60
Keibert RuizC
WSH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T60
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T60
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T60
Matt McLain2B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T60
JJ BledayLF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T60
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T60
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T60
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T60
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T60
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #219
T60
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T60
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #225
T60
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T60
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T60
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #229
T60
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T60
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #231
T60
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T60
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T60
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsDET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T60
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026

Denzer Guzman (LAA) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, June 29, 2026 board at 100, with Otto Lopez (MIA) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Denzer Guzman

Denzer Guzman (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. The righty is hitting .264 H/PA against righties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And George Kirby has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .350 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned George Kirby too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Otto Lopez (MIA) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (92) vs RHP Griffin Canning: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.353), due to bounce back.
Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP George Kirby: a league-average bat at .219 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350), due to bounce back.
Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (89) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .257 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Henry Bolte (ATH) (89) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .259 into an arm tough on the same side (.128), due to bounce back.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (87) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .262 into an arm tough on the same side (.194), hitter's park.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (85) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .240 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Denzer Guzman (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Brandon Lowe (PIT).
RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Anthony Volpe (NYY).
RHP Griffin Canning has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).

Platoon edges to target

Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .418 against lefties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year.
Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .222 against lefties this year.
Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .292 against lefties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: TJ Rumfield (COL), Konnor Griffin (PIT), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Zach Neto (LAA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Samad Taylor (SD).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Denzer Guzman finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 29, 2026)?: Denzer Guzman (LAA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 29, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, June 29, 2026: Denzer Guzman (100), Otto Lopez (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (92), Zach Neto (91), Esteury Ruiz (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 29, 2026?: Yes — Denzer Guzman got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .418 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year. Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .222 against lefties this year. Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .292 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Denzer Guzman (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Brandon Lowe (PIT). RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Anthony Volpe (NYY). RHP Griffin Canning has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: TJ Rumfield (COL), Konnor Griffin (PIT), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Zach Neto (LAA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Samad Taylor (SD).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.