Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top hits spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP the starter. The righty is hitting .312 H/PA against righties this year — and .268 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And the starter has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against the starter. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (88) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .266 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (87) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (86) vs LHP Tyler Alexander: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (85) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .251 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) (83) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .241 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.389), hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (83) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm tough on the same side (.194), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (82) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .263 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Denzer Guzman (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- LHP Tyler Alexander has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Kahlil Watson (CLE), and Steven Kwan (CLE).
- RHP Sean Burke has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .316 against lefties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year.
- Samad Taylor (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .375 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Konnor Griffin (PIT), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Samad Taylor (SD), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Nate Eaton (BOS), and Byron Buxton (MIN).
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.