Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top hits spot: Nolan Schanuel
Nolan Schanuel (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Civale. The lefty is hitting .255 H/PA against righties this year — and .233 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 24% of his trips. And Aaron Civale has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .409 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 10 career PA against Aaron Civale, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Denzer Guzman (LAA) (98) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (94) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348), hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (92) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (92) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (91) vs LHP Chris Sale: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (89) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a strong bat at .259 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (87) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Denzer Guzman (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).
- RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
Platoon edges to target
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .345 against lefties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .292 against lefties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .314 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Mauricio Dubón (ATL), Konnor Griffin (PIT), and Luis Arraez (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Ben Rice (NYY), Samad Taylor (SD), Alec Burleson (STL), Matt Chapman (SF), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY).
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.