Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, June 28, 2026)?

Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Civale. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, June 28, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, June 28, 2026: Nolan Schanuel (100), Nate Eaton (100), Ben Rice (99), Denzer Guzman (98), Ceddanne Rafaela (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, June 28, 2026?

Yes — Nolan Schanuel got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year. Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Denzer Guzman (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA). RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX). RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, June 28, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 28, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 65%

Top 10

3/1030%

season 67%

Full slate

155/27057%

season 57%

Top call Nolan Schanuel came through. Nate Eaton didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–4

WSHaway

BALhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–9

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–2

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup87 Final · 7–5

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–6

SEAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup81 Final · 1–5

AZaway

TBhomeTop matchup94 Final · 5–4

PHIaway

NYMhomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–3

CHCaway

MILhomeTop matchup67 Final · 2–3

COLaway

MINhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–4

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–2

MIAaway

STLhomeTop matchup92 Final · 1–4

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

ATLaway

SFhomeTop matchup91 Final · 4–2

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup93 Final · 4–5

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup100

Not starting77 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 347 shownScore

162 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsAZ· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T1
Matt Olson1B
ATL@SF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T1
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@BAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T1
Carter JensenC
KC@CWS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T1
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T1
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T1
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsCIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T1
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCHC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #170
9
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T9
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T9
Matt Chapman3B
SFvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T9
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T9
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T9
Josh Jung3B
TEX@TOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T9
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T9
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T9
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T9
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T9
George SpringerDH
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T9
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T9
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T9
Lane ThomasLF
KC@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #96
T9
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T9
Christian YelichDH
MILvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T9
Starling MarteRF
KC@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T9
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T9
Cole CarriggCF
COL@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T9
Elias DíazC
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T9
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsKC· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T9
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@CLE· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T9
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T9
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T9
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T9
Colton CowserCF
BALvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T9
Salvador PerezDH
KC@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T9
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T9
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T9
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T9
Cole Young2B
SEA@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T9
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T9
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T9
Manny Machado3B
SDvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T9
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T9
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T9
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T9
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T9
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T9
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T9
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T9
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsHOU· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T9
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
52
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T52
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T52
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T52
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T52
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T52
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T52
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T52
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T52
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T52
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T52
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T52
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T52
Willi Castro2B
COL@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T52
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T52
Konnor GriffinSS
PITvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T52
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T52
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T52
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T52
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T52
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T52
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T52
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T52
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T52
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T52
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T52
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T52
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T52
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T52
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T52
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T52
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T52
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T52
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T52
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T52
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T52
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T52
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T52
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T52
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T52
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T52
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T52
James WoodRF
WSH@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T52
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T52
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T52
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T52
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T52
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T52
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T52
Pavin Smith1B
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T52
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T52
Kyle TeelC
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T52
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T52
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T52
Alex JacksonC
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T52
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T52
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T52
Christian Walker1B
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T52
JJ BledayLF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T52
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@STL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T52
Colt Keith3B
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T52
Mitch GarverC
SEA@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T52
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T52
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T52
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T52
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T52
Tyler HeinemanC
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T52
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T52
Nick FortesC
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T52
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T52
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T52
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T52
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T52
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T52
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T52
Pedro PagésC
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T52
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T52
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T52
Graham Pauley3B
MIA@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T52
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T52
Austin MartinRF
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T52
Cal RaleighC
SEA@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T52
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T52
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T52
Alex Freeland2B
LAD@SD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T52
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T52
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T52
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T52
Keibert RuizC
WSH@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T52
Gary SánchezC
MILvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T52
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T52
Jake MeyersCF
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T52
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T52
Raynel Delgado2B
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T52
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T52
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T52
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T52
Max Muncy3B
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T52
Connor WongC
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
T52
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T52
Henry DavisC
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T52
David Hamilton3B
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T52
Kameron MisnerCF
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T52
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T52
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T52
José CaballeroSS
NYY@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #266
T52
James OutmanCF
DETvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #270
T52
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@TOR· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T52
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@SF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T52
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T52
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsATL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026

Nolan Schanuel (LAA) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, June 28, 2026 board at 100, with Nate Eaton (BOS) and Ben Rice (NYY) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Civale. The lefty is hitting .255 H/PA against righties this year — and .233 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 24% of his trips. And Aaron Civale has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .409 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 10 career PA against Aaron Civale, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Nate Eaton (BOS) (100) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.355), due to bounce back.
Ben Rice (NYY) (99) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a solid bat at .244 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.229), due to bounce back.
Denzer Guzman (LAA) (98) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (97) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a strong bat at .261 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.355).
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (94) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (93) vs RHP Michael King: a strong bat at .267 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.233), hot bat.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (92) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Denzer Guzman (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA).
RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).

Platoon edges to target

Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year.
Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Mauricio Dubón (ATL), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Luis Arraez (SF), and Konnor Griffin (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Nate Eaton (BOS), Ben Rice (NYY), Samad Taylor (SD), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY), and Matt Chapman (SF).

How it played out

3 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Nolan Schanuel finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, June 28, 2026)?: Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Civale. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, June 28, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, June 28, 2026: Nolan Schanuel (100), Nate Eaton (100), Ben Rice (99), Denzer Guzman (98), Ceddanne Rafaela (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, June 28, 2026?: Yes — Nolan Schanuel got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year. Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Denzer Guzman (LAA), and Jo Adell (LAA). RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX). RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Mauricio Dubón (ATL), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Luis Arraez (SF), and Konnor Griffin (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Nate Eaton (BOS), Ben Rice (NYY), Samad Taylor (SD), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY), and Matt Chapman (SF).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.