Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?

Liam Hicks (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Liam Hicks (100), Luis Arraez (100), Xavier Edwards (85), Kyle Stowers (78), Griffin Conine (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .283 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM). RHP Cade Cavalli has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Anthony Seigler (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 65%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

170/27063%

season 57%

Top call Liam Hicks came through. Travis Bazzana didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–3

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup56 Final · 4–2

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup75 Final · 0–8

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup70 Final · 9–3

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–0

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup61 Final · 8–1

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup70 Final · 5–3

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 2–7

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup60 Final · 10–4

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup65 Final · 7–9

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–6

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup64 Final · 14–3

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–8

LAAaway

SEAhomeTop matchup73 Final · 2–8

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–3

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup62

Not starting69 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 339 shownScore

171 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@COL· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T1
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@COL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T1
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@ATH· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
4
Luis Arraez2B
SF@AZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T4
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@COL· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T4
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsLAA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T4
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T4
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T4
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #101
T4
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T4
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsTB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T4
James WoodRF
WSH@BOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T4
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T4
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@COL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #176
T4
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #178
T4
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsPIT· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #187
T4
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@BAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T4
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsCIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T4
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsLAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
20
Liam HicksC
MIA@COL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T20
Samad TaylorLF
SD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T20
Andy PagesCF
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T20
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #28
T20
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T20
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T20
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #34
T20
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T20
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T20
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T20
Josh Jung3B
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T20
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T20
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T20
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T20
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T20
Junior Caminero3B
TB@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T20
Ty France1B
SD@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T20
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T20
Manny Machado3B
SD@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T20
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T20
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T20
Dillon DinglerC
DET@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #88
T20
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #90
T20
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #96
T20
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T20
Nelson VelázquezLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T20
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLEvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T20
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T20
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T20
Riley GreeneLF
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T20
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T20
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T20
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T20
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T20
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T20
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T20
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T20
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T20
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T20
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T20
Keibert RuizC
WSH@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T20
Luis Urías2B
TORvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T20
Daylen LileLF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T20
Max KeplerLF
AZvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T20
Nick FortesC
TB@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T20
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
66
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #6
T66
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T66
Yandy DíazDH
TB@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T66
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T66
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T66
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T66
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T66
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T66
William ContrerasC
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #26
T66
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T66
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #31
T66
Carter JensenC
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #32
T66
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #37
T66
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T66
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T66
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T66
Rafael Devers1B
SF@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T66
Miguel AndujarDH
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T66
Zach NetoSS
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T66
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T66
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T66
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T66
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T66
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T66
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T66
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T66
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T66
Kyle TeelC
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T66
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T66
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T66
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #91
T66
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #93
T66
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #95
T66
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #97
T66
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T66
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T66
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #109
T66
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T66
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T66
Josh LoweLF
LAA@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T66
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T66
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T66
Josh BellDH
MIN@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T66
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T66
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T66
Cole Young2B
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T66
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T66
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T66
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T66
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T66
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T66
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T66
George SpringerDH
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T66
Billy CookCF
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T66
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T66
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T66
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T66
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T66
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T66
Joey Meneses1B
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T66
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T66
Romy GonzalezDH
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T66
Masyn WinnSS
STL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T66
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T66
Jorge MateoSS
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T66
Colt Keith3B
DET@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #170
T66
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T66
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T66
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #180
T66
Ben Williamson2B
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #182
T66
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #183
T66
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #185
T66
Junior PerezCF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #186
T66
Jared Young1B
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #189
T66
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T66
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHCvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T66
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #205
T66
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T66
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T66
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T66
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T66
Freddy FerminC
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T66
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T66
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T66
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T66
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T66
Jorge BarrosaCF
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T66
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T66
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T66
Luis TorrensC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T66
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T66
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T66
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T66
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T66
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T66
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T66
Dalton RushingC
LAD@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T66
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T66
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T66
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T66
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T66
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #256
T66
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #260
T66
Brett Baty3B
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T66
James OutmanCF
DET@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T66
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Liam Hicks (MIA) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Xavier Edwards (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is hitting .256 H/PA against righties this year — and .273 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (85) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .261 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) (78) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .230 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Griffin Conine (MIA) (76) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) (75) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .264 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.406), due to bounce back.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) (75) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: a strong bat at .269 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227), due to bounce back.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (74) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276), due to bounce back.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA).
LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM).
RHP Cade Cavalli has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Anthony Seigler (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).

Platoon edges to target

Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .283 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Liam Hicks (MIA) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Luis Arraez (SF), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Konnor Griffin (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Travis Bazzana (CLE), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), William Contreras (MIL), and Gabriel Moreno (AZ).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Liam Hicks finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?: Liam Hicks (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Liam Hicks (100), Luis Arraez (100), Xavier Edwards (85), Kyle Stowers (78), Griffin Conine (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, June 30, 2026?: Yes — Liam Hicks got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .283 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Liam Hicks (MIA) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Kyle Stowers (MIA). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM). RHP Cade Cavalli has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Anthony Seigler (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Liam Hicks (MIA), Luis Arraez (SF), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Konnor Griffin (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Travis Bazzana (CLE), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), William Contreras (MIL), and Gabriel Moreno (AZ).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.