Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Top hits spot: Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Backhus. The righty is hitting .342 H/PA against lefties this year — and .429 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Kyle Backhus has been vulnerable to lefties lately — .273 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Backhus too — 1.000 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (91) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .261 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Ramón Laureano (SD) (87) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .244 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (85) vs RHP Zack Littell: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.429).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (84) vs RHP Zack Littell: a strong bat at .251 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348).
- Carlos Correa (HOU) (83) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: a strong bat at .255 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.450).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (83) vs LHP Max Fried: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.220).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (82) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .258 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hitter's park.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Tanner Bibee has been getting tattooed by righties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carlos Correa (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
- RHP Janson Junk has been getting tattooed by righties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Gorman (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Nathan Church (STL).
- RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Jakob Marsee (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .342 against lefties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .438 against lefties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .313 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ramón Laureano (SD) at 87.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Chase Meidroth (CWS), Jose Fernandez (AZ), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Ernie Clement (TOR). Cold but due to bounce back: Ramón Laureano (SD), Will Smith (LAD), Jackson Merrill (SD), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Corbin Carroll (AZ).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Nico Hoerner finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.