Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, April 24, 2026
Top hits spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .400 H/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .500 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 15 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (98) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (93) vs LHP Yusei Kikuchi: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.233), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (90) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.323).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (89) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hot bat.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) (86) vs LHP PJ Poulin: a strong bat at .256 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Dominic Smith (ATL) (85) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an elite bat at .306 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hot bat.
- Brady House (WSH) (82) vs LHP Bryan Hudson: a strong bat at .262 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties — .307 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Brett Baty (NYM).
- LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Kerry Carpenter (DET), and Matt Vierling (DET).
- RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Iván Herrera (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Alec Burleson (STL).
- RHP Adrian Houser has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .348 against lefties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Mickey Moniak (COL), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Ernie Clement (TOR), Chase Meidroth (CWS), Dominic Smith (ATL), and Brady House (WSH). Cold but due to bounce back: Christian Vázquez (HOU), Willson Contreras (BOS), Willy Adames (SF), Will Smith (LAD), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Juan Soto finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.