Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, May 2, 2026
Top hits spot: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Brennan Bernardino. The righty is hitting .357 H/PA against lefties this year — and .464 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Brennan Bernardino has been mostly holding up against lefties lately — .231 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brennan Bernardino too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (94) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.280), due to bounce back.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (82) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500).
- Josh Jung (TEX) (82) vs RHP Keider Montero: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm tough on the same side (.111), hot bat.
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) (81) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.462), due to bounce back.
- Carlos Correa (HOU) (78) vs LHP Connelly Early: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.172).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (76) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.210).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (76) vs LHP Brennan Bernardino: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), hitter's park.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Kyle Bradish has been getting tattooed by righties — .302 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Aaron Judge (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Austin Wynns (ATH), Carlos Cortes (ATH), and Nick Kurtz (ATH).
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Rece Hinds (CIN).
- LHP Jacob Lopez has been giving up plenty to lefties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Angel Martínez (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year.
- Carlos Correa (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .308 against lefties this year.
- Angel Martínez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .235 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ozzie Albies (ATL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Josh Jung (TEX), Byron Buxton (MIN), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Willson Contreras (BOS). Cold but due to bounce back: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Angel Martínez (CLE), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Ketel Marte (AZ).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ozzie Albies finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.