Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The lefty is hitting .315 H/PA against righties this year — and .321 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been vulnerable to righties lately — .263 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .083 in 12 career PA against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (97) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.360).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (93) vs RHP Erick Fedde: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (93) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: a strong bat at .266 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (93) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (92) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a solid bat at .241 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Maikel Garcia (KC) (89) vs RHP Erick Fedde: a solid bat at .239 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Josh Jung (TEX) (87) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.292).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been getting tattooed by righties — .303 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Mike Trout (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties — .294 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Oneil Cruz (PIT).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .315 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .162 against lefties this year.
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Luis Arraez (SF), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Maikel Garcia (KC), Zach Neto (LAA), Randy Arozarena (SEA), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Masyn Winn (STL), Sam Haggerty (TEX), Bo Bichette (NYM), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Brenton Doyle (COL).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.