Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, June 26, 2026)?

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, June 26, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, June 26, 2026: Jonathan Aranda (100), Michael Harris II (100), Trevor Larnach (92), Paul Goldschmidt (91), Byron Buxton (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, June 26, 2026?

Yes — Jonathan Aranda got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .243 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .341 against lefties this year. Josh Jung (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties — .300 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Richie Palacios (TB). LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Justin Foscue (TEX). LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL). RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, June 26, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, June 26, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 65%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

161/27060%

season 57%

Top call Jonathan Aranda came through. Paul Goldschmidt didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 0–8

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup77 Final · 6–4

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup85 Final · 1–3

WSHaway

BALhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–4

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–6

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup91 Final · 3–1

SEAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup83 Final · 1–6

AZaway

TBhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–1

PHIaway

NYMhomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–22

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–6

CHCaway

MILhomeTop matchup77 Final · 8–9

COLaway

MINhomeTop matchup92 Final · 4–0

MIAaway

STLhomeTop matchup86 Final · 9–3

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 1–7

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–1

ATLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting60 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 330 shownScore

168 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsKC· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
2
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T2
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsKC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T2
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@TOR· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T2
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@MIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T2
Taylor WardDH
BALvsWSH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T2
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@NYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T2
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T2
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsKC· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T2
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWSvsKC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
11
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T11
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T11
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T11
Christian YelichDH
MILvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T11
Konnor GriffinSS
PITvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T11
Nick Kurtz1B
ATH@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T11
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T11
Matt Olson1B
ATL@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T11
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T11
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T11
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T11
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T11
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T11
Kyle TeelC
CWSvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T11
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T11
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T11
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T11
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T11
William ContrerasC
MILvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T11
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T11
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T11
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T11
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T11
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T11
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T11
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T11
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T11
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@DET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T11
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T11
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T11
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T11
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T11
Jake MangumCF
PITvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T11
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T11
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T11
David Hamilton3B
MILvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T11
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T11
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T11
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T11
Max Muncy3B
ATH@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #260
51
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T51
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T51
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T51
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T51
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T51
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T51
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T51
Carter JensenC
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T51
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T51
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T51
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T51
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T51
Andy PagesCF
LAD@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T51
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T51
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T51
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T51
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T51
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T51
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T51
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T51
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T51
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T51
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T51
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T51
Josh BellDH
MINvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T51
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T51
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T51
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T51
Blake DunnCF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T51
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T51
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T51
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T51
James WoodRF
WSH@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T51
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T51
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T51
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T51
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T51
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T51
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T51
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T51
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T51
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T51
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T51
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T51
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T51
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T51
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T51
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T51
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T51
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T51
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T51
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T51
Derek HillCF
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T51
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T51
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T51
Jonah HeimC
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T51
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T51
Henry BolteCF
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T51
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T51
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T51
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T51
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T51
Willi Castro2B
COL@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T51
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T51
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T51
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T51
Manny Machado3B
SDvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T51
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T51
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T51
Colt Keith3B
DETvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T51
Keibert RuizC
WSH@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T51
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T51
Josh Rojas3B
KC@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T51
Connor WongC
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T51
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T51
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T51
Yainer DiazC
HOU@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T51
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T51
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #189
T51
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T51
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T51
Jared Young1B
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T51
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #202
T51
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T51
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T51
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T51
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T51
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T51
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T51
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T51
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T51
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T51
José FermínLF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T51
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T51
Rodolfo DuránC
SDvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T51
Ty France1B
SDvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T51
Tsung-Che ChengSS
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T51
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T51
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T51
Austin Riley3B
ATL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T51
Cole Young2B
SEA@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T51
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T51
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T51
Tristan GraySS
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #256
T51
Graham Pauley3B
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #261
T51
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T51
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T51
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T51
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T51
Edouard Julien2B
COL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T51
James OutmanCF
DETvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T51
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsCOL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T51
Alex CallLF
LAD@SD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T51
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T51
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T51
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@CLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T51
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
T51
Kyle Karros3B
COL@MIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026

Jonathan Aranda (TB) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, June 26, 2026 board at 100, with Michael Harris II (ATL) and Trevor Larnach (MIN) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is hitting .243 H/PA against righties this year — and .357 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .415 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
Trevor Larnach (MIN) (92) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .266 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (91) vs LHP Payton Tolle: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
Byron Buxton (MIN) (89) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320).
Josh Jung (TEX) (87) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.379), due to bounce back.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (87) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (87) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .270 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties — .300 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Richie Palacios (TB).
LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Justin Foscue (TEX).
LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .243 against righties this year.
Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .341 against lefties this year.
Josh Jung (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Alec Burleson (STL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Donovan Walton (LAA), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Otto Lopez (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Josh Jung (TEX), Travis Bazzana (CLE), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, June 26, 2026)?: Jonathan Aranda (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, June 26, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, June 26, 2026: Jonathan Aranda (100), Michael Harris II (100), Trevor Larnach (92), Paul Goldschmidt (91), Byron Buxton (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, June 26, 2026?: Yes — Jonathan Aranda got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .243 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .341 against lefties this year. Josh Jung (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties — .300 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Richie Palacios (TB). LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Justin Foscue (TEX). LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL). RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Alec Burleson (STL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Donovan Walton (LAA), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Otto Lopez (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Josh Jung (TEX), Travis Bazzana (CLE), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.