Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top hits spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is hitting .243 H/PA against righties this year — and .357 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .415 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (92) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .266 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (91) vs LHP Payton Tolle: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (89) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320).
- Josh Jung (TEX) (87) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.379), due to bounce back.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (87) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (87) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .270 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties — .300 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Richie Palacios (TB).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Justin Foscue (TEX).
- LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Coby Mayo (BAL).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .243 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .341 against lefties this year.
- Josh Jung (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Alec Burleson (STL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Donovan Walton (LAA), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Otto Lopez (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Josh Jung (TEX), Travis Bazzana (CLE), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.