Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jose Cabrera. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, June 27, 2026: Jonathan Aranda (100), Casey Schmitt (100), Donovan Walton (100), Luis Arraez (100), Paul Goldschmidt (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, June 27, 2026?

Yes — Jonathan Aranda got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Cole Sulser has been getting tattooed by righties — .307 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ). RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, June 27, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, June 27, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 65%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

169/27063%

season 57%

Top call Jonathan Aranda came through. Donovan Walton didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 8–6

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–4

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup97 Final · 7–4

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup91 Final · 9–7

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup68 Final · 2–6

PHIaway

NYMhomeTop matchup84 Final · 1–2

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup95 Final · 2–4

AZaway

TBhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–3

WSHaway

BALhomeTop matchup86 Final · 8–5

COLaway

MINhomeTop matchup96 Final · 8–2

CHCaway

MILhomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–4

SEAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup61 Final · 5–1

MIAaway

STLhomeTop matchup83 Final · 15–3

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup67 Final · 0–5

ATLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

177 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@BAL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T1
Christian Walker1B
HOU@DET· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
3
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T3
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@STL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T3
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T3
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@SD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T3
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T3
Jake Burger1B
TEX@TOR· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T3
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@MIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T3
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@TB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T3
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsLAD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T3
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@BAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T3
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@STL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T3
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@SD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T3
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsCIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
16
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T16
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T16
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T16
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T16
Otto LopezSS
MIA@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T16
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T16
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T16
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T16
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T16
Jake MangumCF
PITvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T16
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T16
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T16
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T16
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T16
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T16
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T16
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T16
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T16
Michael Massey2B
KC@CWS· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T16
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T16
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T16
Andy PagesCF
LAD@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T16
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T16
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@MIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T16
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T16
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T16
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T16
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T16
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T16
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T16
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T16
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T16
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T16
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T16
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsATH· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T16
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T16
Yainer DiazC
HOU@DET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T16
Miguel AndujarDH
SDvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T16
Max Muncy3B
LAD@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T16
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T16
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@PIT· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T16
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T16
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T16
Chadwick TrompC
BALvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T16
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T16
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T16
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T16
Daylen LileLF
WSH@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T16
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T16
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T16
Drew MillasC
WSH@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
67
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T67
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T67
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T67
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T67
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T67
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T67
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T67
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T67
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T67
Carter JensenC
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T67
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T67
Nick Kurtz1B
ATH@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T67
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T67
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T67
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T67
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T67
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T67
Josh BellDH
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T67
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T67
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T67
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T67
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T67
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T67
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T67
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T67
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T67
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T67
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T67
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T67
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T67
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T67
Matt ShawRF
CHC@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T67
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T67
Blake PerkinsCF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T67
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T67
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T67
Josh Jung3B
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T67
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T67
JJ BledayLF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T67
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T67
Gary SánchezC
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T67
Sean KeysDH
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T67
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T67
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T67
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T67
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T67
José TenaDH
WSH@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T67
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T67
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T67
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T67
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T67
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T67
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T67
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T67
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T67
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T67
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T67
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T67
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T67
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T67
Salvador PerezDH
KC@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T67
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWSvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T67
Colby ThomasRF
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T67
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T67
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T67
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T67
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T67
Tristan GraySS
MINvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T67
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T67
Jonah HeimC
ATH@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T67
Cam SmithRF
HOU@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T67
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T67
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T67
Elias DíazC
TEX@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T67
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T67
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T67
Carson KellyC
CHC@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T67
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T67
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T67
Joe MackC
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T67
Kyle Karros3B
COL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T67
Endy RodríguezC
PITvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T67
Cooper IngleC
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T67
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T67
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T67
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T67
Jake MeyersCF
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T67
Dane MyersCF
CIN@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T67
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T67
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T67
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T67
Michael Busch1B
CHC@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T67
Cole Young2B
SEA@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T67
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T67
Dalton RushingC
LAD@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T67
Brett SullivanC
COL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T67
Christian VázquezC
HOU@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T67
Ian HappLF
CHC@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T67
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T67
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T67
Will WagnerDH
SDvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T67
Rafael MarchánC
PHI@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T67
Jake RogersC
DETvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T67
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@LAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T67
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsCIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T67
Ryan WardLF
LAD@SD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T67
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T67
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@MIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T67
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T67
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T67
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026

Jonathan Aranda (TB) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, June 27, 2026 board at 100, with Casey Schmitt (SF) and Donovan Walton (LAA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jose Cabrera. The lefty is hitting .251 H/PA against righties this year — and .389 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Jose Cabrera has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jose Cabrera. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Casey Schmitt (SF) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368).
Donovan Walton (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an elite bat at .300 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320), hot bat.
Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.405).
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (97) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an elite bat at .302 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (97) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (95) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Cole Sulser has been getting tattooed by righties — .307 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ).
RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).

Platoon edges to target

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Donovan Walton (LAA), Jake McCarthy (COL), Bo Bichette (NYM), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Carter Jensen (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Mark Vientos (NYM), Ben Rice (NYY), Cody Bellinger (NYY), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?: Jonathan Aranda (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jose Cabrera. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, June 27, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, June 27, 2026: Jonathan Aranda (100), Casey Schmitt (100), Donovan Walton (100), Luis Arraez (100), Paul Goldschmidt (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, June 27, 2026?: Yes — Jonathan Aranda got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year. Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Cole Sulser has been getting tattooed by righties — .307 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ). RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Donovan Walton (LAA), Jake McCarthy (COL), Bo Bichette (NYM), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Carter Jensen (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Mark Vientos (NYM), Ben Rice (NYY), Cody Bellinger (NYY), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.