Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top hits spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jose Cabrera. The lefty is hitting .251 H/PA against righties this year — and .389 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Jose Cabrera has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jose Cabrera. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368).
- Donovan Walton (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an elite bat at .300 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.405).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (97) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an elite bat at .302 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (97) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (95) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Cole Sulser has been getting tattooed by righties — .307 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
- RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
- RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Donovan Walton (LAA), Jake McCarthy (COL), Bo Bichette (NYM), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Carter Jensen (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Mark Vientos (NYM), Ben Rice (NYY), Cody Bellinger (NYY), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.