Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, May 14, 2026
Top hits spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Griffin Canning. The righty is hitting .360 H/PA against righties this year — and .360 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Griffin Canning has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .417 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Griffin Canning. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Maikel Garcia (KC) (100) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Zach Cole (HOU) (95) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (95) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .267 into an arm tough on the same side (.191).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (94) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .252 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (91) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.214).
- William Contreras (MIL) (88) vs RHP Griffin Canning: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .256 into an arm tough on the same side (.191).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
- LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Maikel Garcia (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Salvador Perez (KC).
- RHP Griffin Canning has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Joey Ortiz (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Maikel Garcia (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .353 against lefties this year.
- Zach Cole (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .350 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Randy Arozarena (SEA), Michael Harris II (ATL), Braden Shewmake (HOU), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Riley Greene (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Willson Contreras (BOS), Jarren Duran (BOS), Will Smith (LAD), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Andy Pages (LAD).
How it played out
4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.