Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, May 17, 2026
Top hits spot: Ildemaro Vargas
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .304 H/PA against righties this year — and .206 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .360 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .083 in 12 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (91) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (91) vs RHP Andre Pallante: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238), hot bat.
- Josh Jung (TEX) (85) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), due to bounce back.
- Carlos Cortes (ATH) (85) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a strong bat at .255 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (81) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a strong bat at .253 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238).
- Iván Herrera (STL) (81) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a solid bat at .246 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (81) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .265 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Brady Singer has been getting tattooed by righties — .299 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daniel Schneemann (CLE), Petey Halpin (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties — .295 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Colson Montgomery (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Luisangel Acuña (CWS).
- RHP Elmer Rodríguez has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Mark Vientos (NYM).
Platoon edges to target
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .270 against righties this year.
- Carlos Cortes (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .216 against righties this year.
- Harrison Bader (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Iván Herrera (STL), Riley Greene (DET), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Josh Jung (TEX), Carlos Cortes (ATH), Petey Halpin (CLE), Troy Johnston (COL), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ildemaro Vargas finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.