Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top hits spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is hitting .294 H/PA against righties this year — and .349 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .415 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Zac Gallen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (100) vs LHP Connelly Early: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (94) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.415), due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (92) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.295), hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (91) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .268 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hot bat.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (81) vs RHP Bryce Miller: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.160).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (79) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm tough on the same side (.133).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (79) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting tattooed by righties — .300 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Lars Nootbaar (STL).
- RHP Casey Legumina has been getting tattooed by righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Loftin (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC).
- RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Bryce Eldridge (SF), and Matt Chapman (SF).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .341 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .243 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Alec Burleson (STL), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Carter Jensen (KC), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Isaac Paredes (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Bryce Eldridge (SF), James Wood (WSH), Iván Herrera (STL), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.