Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top hits spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is hitting .260 H/PA against lefties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .440 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Matthew Liberatore too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs LHP JP Sears: a strong bat at .265 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.293), hitter's park.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (97) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .247 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), due to bounce back.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (96) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .270 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a strong bat at .269 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (93) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a strong bat at .253 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (93) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a strong bat at .266 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nate Eaton (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Tyler Mahle has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .305 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .294 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Nate Eaton (BOS) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Byron Buxton (MIN), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Carter Jensen (KC), George Springer (TOR), and Donovan Walton (LAA). Cold but due to bounce back: Bryce Eldridge (SF), Blake Dunn (CIN), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
How it played out
4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.