Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?

Ketel Marte (AZ) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Ketel Marte (100), Michael Harris II (100), Nate Eaton (100), Bryce Eldridge (97), Nathan Lukes (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, June 24, 2026?

Yes — Ketel Marte got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year. Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .305 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .294 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nate Eaton (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS). RHP Tyler Mahle has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH). RHP Mike Burrows has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 65%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 67%

Full slate

166/28858%

season 57%

Top call Ketel Marte came through. Michael Harris II didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–4

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 10–3

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup82 Final · 4–3

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup71 Final · 6–8

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–7

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup88 Final · 1–11

SEAaway

PIThomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–5

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup84 Final · 4–2

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup87 Final · 5–4

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup66 Final · 3–1

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup96 Final · 10–5

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup77 Final · 6–5

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup84 Final · 4–3

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup94 Final · 9–4

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–2

ATHaway

SFhomeTop matchup97

Not starting79 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 367 shownScore

178 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsKC· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T1
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsSEA· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
3
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T3
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T3
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T3
William ContrerasC
MIL@CIN· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T3
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@MIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #98
T3
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T3
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@NYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T3
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHC@NYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T3
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@NYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #257
12
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T12
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T12
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T12
Blake DunnCF
CINvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T12
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #31
T12
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T12
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T12
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T12
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T12
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T12
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T12
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T12
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T12
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T12
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T12
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T12
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T12
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T12
Ben RiceDH
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T12
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T12
Matt Olson1B
ATL@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T12
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T12
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T12
José FermínLF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #88
T12
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #91
T12
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T12
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T12
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T12
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T12
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T12
Michael Massey2B
KC@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T12
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T12
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T12
Joey BartC
ATL@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T12
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T12
Connor WongC
BOS@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T12
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T12
Max Muncy3B
LAD@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T12
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T12
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T12
Endy RodríguezC
PITvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #176
T12
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T12
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsMIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #178
T12
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #180
T12
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T12
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #201
T12
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #205
T12
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T12
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #211
T12
Ty France1B
SDvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T12
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T12
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
T12
Tristan GraySS
MINvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #275
T12
Steven KwanLF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #277
T12
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #281
T12
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #288
68
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T68
Henry BolteCF
ATH@SF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T68
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T68
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T68
Carter JensenC
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T68
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T68
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T68
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #24
T68
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T68
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T68
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T68
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T68
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T68
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T68
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T68
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T68
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T68
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T68
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T68
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T68
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T68
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T68
Mark Vientos1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T68
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T68
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T68
Brice Turang2B
MIL@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T68
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T68
Carlos NarváezC
BOS@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T68
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #107
T68
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T68
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T68
José TenaDH
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T68
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T68
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T68
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T68
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T68
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T68
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T68
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T68
Jake MangumCF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T68
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T68
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T68
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T68
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T68
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T68
Cal RaleighC
SEA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T68
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T68
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T68
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T68
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T68
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T68
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T68
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T68
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T68
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T68
Michael Busch1B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T68
Jake Burger1B
TEX@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T68
Carson KellyC
CHC@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T68
Jared Young1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T68
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T68
Colton CowserCF
BAL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T68
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #181
T68
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #182
T68
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #183
T68
Luis Urías2B
TORvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #189
T68
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #191
T68
Ian HappLF
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T68
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T68
John RaveRF
KC@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T68
Kyle TeelC
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T68
LuJames Groover1B
AZ@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #200
T68
Cole Young2B
SEA@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T68
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T68
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T68
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T68
Nick FortesC
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T68
Eric Wagaman1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T68
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T68
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOU@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T68
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T68
Max Muncy3B
ATH@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T68
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T68
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T68
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T68
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T68
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T68
Jase BowenRF
SDvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T68
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@MIA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T68
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T68
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #256
T68
MJ MelendezDH
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T68
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T68
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #260
T68
Alex Freeland2B
LAD@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #264
T68
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T68
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #270
T68
Jonah CoxCF
SFvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #280
T68
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #285
T68
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #287
T68
Austin MartinRF
MINvsLAD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T68
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@CIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T68
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T68
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T68
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T68
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T68
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T68
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsBOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T68
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsMIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T68
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsMIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T68
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T68
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Ketel Marte (AZ) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 board at 100, with Michael Harris II (ATL) and Nate Eaton (BOS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is hitting .260 H/PA against lefties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .440 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Matthew Liberatore too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs LHP JP Sears: a strong bat at .265 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Nate Eaton (BOS) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.293), hitter's park.
Bryce Eldridge (SF) (97) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .247 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), due to bounce back.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (96) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .270 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).
Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a strong bat at .269 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
JJ Wetherholt (STL) (93) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a strong bat at .253 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) (93) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a strong bat at .266 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nate Eaton (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
RHP Tyler Mahle has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
RHP Mike Burrows has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).

Platoon edges to target

Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year.
Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .305 against righties this year.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .294 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Nate Eaton (BOS) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Byron Buxton (MIN), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Carter Jensen (KC), George Springer (TOR), and Donovan Walton (LAA). Cold but due to bounce back: Bryce Eldridge (SF), Blake Dunn (CIN), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).

How it played out

4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?: Ketel Marte (AZ) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Ketel Marte (100), Michael Harris II (100), Nate Eaton (100), Bryce Eldridge (97), Nathan Lukes (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, June 24, 2026?: Yes — Ketel Marte got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year. Nate Eaton (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .305 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year. Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .294 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Nate Eaton (BOS) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nate Eaton (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS). RHP Tyler Mahle has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH). RHP Mike Burrows has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Byron Buxton (MIN), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Carter Jensen (KC), George Springer (TOR), and Donovan Walton (LAA). Cold but due to bounce back: Bryce Eldridge (SF), Blake Dunn (CIN), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.