Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Yandy Díaz
Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Seth Lugo. The righty is stacking production at .573 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .789 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 57% of his trips. And Seth Lugo has been getting lit up by righties lately — .875 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 10 career PA against Seth Lugo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Junior Caminero (TB) (100) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .612 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.875), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .568 into an arm giving up production to the same side (.465), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (91) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .527 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.758), hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (85) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .562 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.516).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (84) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .508 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.077), due to bounce back.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (82) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .532 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.758), hot bat.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (81) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an excellent bat at .559 into an arm tough on the same side (.281).
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — .584 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Liam Hicks (MIA).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — .566 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Sean Keys (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — .562 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties — .549 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .565 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .523 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .576 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .549 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .522 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Xavier Edwards (MIA) at 79.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.