Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is stacking production at .720 (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year — and .583 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 52% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .643 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Kyle Freeland, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .574 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.545), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (99) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .547 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.758), hot bat.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (92) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .508 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.839).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (92) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .561 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.875), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (92) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .607 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.875), hot bat.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (90) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .492 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.077), due to bounce back.
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (89) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .492 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.643), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties — .584 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Esteury Ruiz (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting lit up by righties — .566 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been getting lit up by righties — .562 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties — .549 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .720 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .535 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .534 against righties this year.
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .551 against lefties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Otto Lopez finished with 1 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays