Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is stacking production at .586 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .775 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 58% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .696 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (97) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .598 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.660).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .541 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.565).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (94) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .575 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.966).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (94) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .508 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.481).
- Ryan Kreidler (MIN) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an elite bat at .671 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.565).
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (90) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .453 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.046).
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (87) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a solid bat at .488 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.697).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Aaron Civale has been getting lit up by righties — .580 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Denzer Guzman (LAA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties — .543 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
- RHP Emerson Hancock has been getting lit up by righties — .541 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kahlil Watson (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — .540 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Burger (TEX), Josh Jung (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .586 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .582 against lefties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .451 against righties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .563 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 0 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.