Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is stacking production at .586 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .775 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 58% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .696 H+R+RBI per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (100) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .560 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.400), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (97) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .598 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.660).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs RHP Michael King: a strong bat at .549 into an arm tough on the same side (.367).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .541 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.565).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (94) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .575 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.966).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (94) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .508 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.481).
- Ryan Kreidler (MIN) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an elite bat at .671 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.565).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Aaron Civale has been getting lit up by righties — .580 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Denzer Guzman (LAA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties — .543 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
- RHP Emerson Hancock has been getting lit up by righties — .541 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kahlil Watson (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties — .540 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Burger (TEX), Josh Jung (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .586 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .636 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .582 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .558 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 0 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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